Investors are getting hit on all sides by news that raises big concerns, and stocks haven't been able to inspire much confidence from traders on Wall Street.

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: .IXIC) is now back to being down more than 20% from its highs, with a drop of more than 2% at 1.45pm ET that shows just how little conviction many investors have in high-growth stocks right now.

However, some stocks in the Nasdaq managed to hold up well even in Monday's decline. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) was once again a beneficiary of troubling news on the health front, this time from China. Meanwhile, investors continued to look for safe havens, and that helped consumer products giant PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) maintain a modest gain Monday afternoon.

China's COVID-19 cases boost vaccine stocks

Shares of Moderna were up more than 11% on Monday afternoon. The vaccine maker wasn't alone, with BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) seeing gains of more than 12%.

The news that was behind the upward move for vaccine stocks came from China, where an outbreak of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has prompted government officials to impose new lockdown measures and travel restrictions. More than 1,300 cases have appeared, with the majority coming from the northeastern province of Jilin. In addition, the city of Shenzhen has seen new cases, prompting a lockdown of the city. Even though the number of cases is relatively small, China has been adamant in following its zero-COVID policy.

Even more troubling is the fact that many of these cases involve a new subvariant of Omicron that shows signs of being more transmissible and more harmful for those who become infected. It's unknown how well Moderna and BioNTech's vaccines will protect against this "stealth Omicron" variant, but investors believe the companies can work to potentially refine their vaccines over time.

Meanwhile, Moderna announced a study with the goal of making a vaccine to protect people against HIV. Such a breakthrough would show that Moderna isn't a one-trick pony and prove once and for all the efficacy of its mRNA technology.

Pepsi is fizzing higher

Elsewhere, shares of PepsiCo were up a more modest 2%. The soft drink and snack foods manufacturer has traditionally had some defensive characteristics that make it an attractive investment for those seeking shelter from tough market environments.

PepsiCo has become a staple for millions of consumers around the world, and its brand name strength gives it a competitive advantage over many smaller companies in the food and beverage space. With many consumers devoted to its brands, PepsiCo is better able to pass on any cost increases in the ingredients that go into its products. That helps PepsiCo sustain its profit margin even when rival companies have to suffer declining earnings.

Dividend investors also appreciate PepsiCo. The stock yields 2.8% currently, and the company has an impressive streak of consistently boosting the amount of its quarterly dividend payments that dates back decades.

Perhaps best of all, PepsiCo hasn't been afraid to set trends rather than react to them. When consumers started demanding healthier options, PepsiCo was among the first major companies to respond aggressively by moving away from sugary soft drinks toward carbonated water and other now-popular beverage alternatives. Similar moves on the snack side of the business have built up even more loyalty for the company.

As inflation hits hard, PepsiCo is in a better position than most to avoid the brunt of higher prices. Stock investors appreciate that kind of protection now more than ever.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post 2 Nasdaq stocks bucking Monday's market drop appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Depending on how narrowly you define ETFs, they've been around for either 13 some years, or well over 20.

But one thing is clear.

As ever more retail investors have entered the market in recent years, ETFs have exploded in popularity. That's because, with a single investment, they can offer you exposure to a large selection of shares, helping diversify your portfolio without having to extensively research every holding yourself.

Below we look at a COVID-19 vaccine exchange traded fund that Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says "has a lot of potential".

But first…

The pandemic's silver bullet?

As it stands, the world's leading COVID-19 vaccines rely on something called messenger RNA. You've likely heard that referred to as mRNA.

In a nutshell, mRNA acts as a kind of targeted delivery system that enables your own immune system to better squelch a virus, or potentially other types of disease.

Atop the current success in tackling the coronavirus, mRNA vaccines could potentially treat cancers, the flu, malaria…the list goes on.

While biotech companies have been working on mRNA since the first officially labelled ETFs came out 13 years ago, the global pandemic has turbocharged their development. And we could be hearing a lot more about this cutting-edge biotech in the years ahead.

According to John Bowler, manager of the Schroder Global Healthcare Fund (quoted by Bloomberg):

The beauty of mRNA technology is the speed, in that once you have the genetic sequence, you can identify exactly what you need to put in the code of your vaccine, and you are giving instructions to the target that the immune system can respond to. It really changes the whole dynamic on infectious diseases.

One ETF holds dozens of vaccine developers

Two of the most successful names in the COVID vaccine race are Moderna INC (NASDAQ: MRNA) and BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX).

Moderna was founded in 2010 in the US state of Massachusetts. The company is a forerunner in mRNA research to treat a range of diseases. And when the COVID pandemic hit, Moderna's boffins went to work overtime.

Since 21 February 2020, when the most of the share market began to tank on early pandemic fears, Moderna's share price has soared 2,280%. In the past 12 months alone, it's gained 531%.

German biotechnology company BioNTech has also had huge success in combatting COVID together with its partner Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE). BioNTech was founded in 2008 and, before the pandemic, largely focused on using mRNA biotech to treat cancer.

The BioNTech share price is up 410% over the past 12 months.

But there's a lot more to the mRNA and the wider vaccine sector than Moderna and BioNTech. There are dozens of listed biotech companies working on improved COVID vaccines and other cutting edge treatments. We may not have heard of them yet but that may not be the case next year.

With that in mind we turn to ETFMG Treatments Testing and Advancements ETF (NYSEARCA: GERM). (Gotta love the ticker!)

Some 90% of the ETF's holdings are based in the United States and Germany.

Moderna, at 11.6%, is its top holding. BioNTech, at 8.8%, is number 2. It also holds more than 30 smaller, lesser-known (for now) companies. You can find a complete list of GERM's holdings here.

Commenting on GERM, Bloomberg's Balchunas said, "You're getting almost completely original exposure and there are some very small companies in here that could be future Modernas with the next big thing. That gives GERM a lot of potential M&A [mergers and acquisitions] pop."

The post Expert reveals top pandemic ETF play – up 58% in 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The IDT Australia Limited (ASX: IDT) share price is shooting 25% higher after The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) reported the company is seeking to work with the federal government to produce mRNA vaccines in Australia.

At the time of writing, shares in the pharmaceutical company are trading for 46.5 cents each – up 25.68%.

Let's take a closer look at what's getting investors so excited.

IDT says it can manufacture mRNA vaccines in Australia

The COVID-19 pandemic has heralded the first wide-scale use of mRNA vaccines. The leading products in this space are the inoculations jointly produced by Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX), as well as the Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) jab.

In an effort to secure domestic supply through the production of the vector for single-strand RNA of viruses, the federal government has been in talks with the companies in a bid to secure a licence for their COVID vaccines to be made in Australia. As well as IDT, CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) is interested in the production of mRNA vaccines on our shores.

IDT says what differentiates its offer from CSL's is it will use existing manufacturing capabilities located near Melbourne's Monash University to make the product. CSL is proposing 2 new facilities for the endeavour, according to the SMH.

The prospect of IDT being awarded a lucrative government contract may be exciting investors, judging by the IDT share price rise.

"This is an established site with an established equipment train in it, which we will expand, and I think that gives us a material time advantage," IDT Chief Executive David Sparling is quoted in the SMH as saying.

"We've formed an alliance with numerous research bodies around the country, including Monash University, and that builds an ecosystem for mRNA."

Dr Sparling further went on to tell the paper his company could produce "100 million doses within 18 months."

IDT says it wants to build an mRNA research facility near its production site if it secures the licence to make the product. Dr Sparling did not reveal any financial details to the SMH.

Motley Fool Australia reached out to IDT for comment. Dr Spalding responded that the reports in the SMH are accurate and that he had nothing further to add beyond what was already in the public domain.

IDT share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, the IDT share price has increased 141%. The company's shares faced a similar boom when IDT revealed it was in discussions with the Victorian government over a proposed mRNA vaccine plant.

IDT Australia has a market capitalisation of around $104 million.

The post Why the IDT (ASX:IDT) share price is rocketing 25% on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

1. Different companies from the beginning

2. What gets prioritized gets done

3. Wall Street shows one more love

MRNA PS Ratio data by YCharts

Data Sources: Moderna, BioNTech.

The tiebreaker

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Better biotech stock: Moderna vs. BioNTech appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Data source: Yahoo! Finance.

Big losses in the vaccine area

Opportunity abounds

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post With COVID-19 variant threats rising, why are vaccine stocks falling? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

As an investor, it's hard not to focus on the incredible revenue generated by COVID-19 vaccine makers like BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX). They have taken a new technology and turned it into one of the best selling drugs of all time. This year could be just the beginning.

After years of scientific research, the age of genetic medicine might have finally arrived. That's great news for BioNTech shareholders. They could see decades of gains ahead. Ironically, the vaccine could now be the biggest threat to those gains in the short term. It's turning out that the vaccine might just work too well.

1. Comirnaty: The COVID-19 Vaccine

Any discussion of BioNTech has to begin with the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with partner Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). As of May 6, more than 450 million doses of the drug had been provided across 91 countries. Combining all COVID vaccine producers, the U.S. is administering about 875,000 doses each day. That number is more than 45 million globally.

The partners already have orders for 1.8 billion doses this year and expect the total capacity for production to reach 3 billion by the end of 2021 (and even more in 2022). Based on the firm orders as of May, BioNTech management was expecting revenue of 12.4 billion euros. Extrapolating that number to the full allotment of doses would bring in more than $20 billion in sales. It's amazing for a product that didn't exist a year ago. However, for the company's $27 billion market cap to hold up over time, it will likely have to bring other drugs to market. On that, it's making progress.

2. A head start in a new era of medicine

With the success of its mRNA-based vaccine, BioNTech and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) have established themselves as early leaders in a revolutionary new biotechnology. For its part, BioNTech has 14 drug candidates in 15 clinical trials. It was originally founded to beat cancer, and the company has several oncology programs going into phase 2 trials this year.

Its skin cancer treatment -- with partner Regeneron -- dosed its first phase 2 patient in mid-June. Its head and neck cancer treatment, combined with Merck's Keytruda, should dose its first phase 2 patient in the coming weeks. Phase 2 for BioNTech's individualized colon cancer treatment will start later this year. In that treatment, a patient's specific tumor mutations -- or neoantigens -- are used to develop a targeted therapy. The number of programs the company is pursuing speaks to the ambition it has for the future of mRNA.

3. Leadership has serious skin in the game

Amid the flurry of executive stock sales in 2020, when shares of companies benefiting from the pandemic skyrocketed, one man stood firm. Ugur Sahin, co-founder and CEO of BioNTech, never sold a single share. It fits his personality. He reportedly doesn't own a car, bikes to work, and continues to live in a modest apartment. 

Filings show Sahin controls 17% of the company worth approximately $9.4 billion. Although there is nothing onerous with their actions, the leaders at Pfizer and Moderna pocketed a combined hundreds of millions of dollars in sales through 2020. A CEO who sells stock isn't necessarily a reason to be concerned. But a CEO with most of his personal wealth aligned with shareholders is definitely a good sign.

The vaccines might be too good

Until now, most had been operating under the assumption that COVID protection would mean getting a booster shot each year  -- like the flu. But the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't mutate as fast as your typical influenza bug. And it is looking like our bodies defenses, through inoculation of having had the illness, might be long-lasting.

A just-published peer-reviewed study indicated the protection offered by the mRNA vaccines could last for years, making the need for booster shots unnecessary. That doesn't apply to the Johnson & Johnson jab. The lack of enduring protection from that drug will create some incremental demand for both BioNTech and Moderna's shot. The study didn't account for the delta variant. It's possible that could complicate the study's conclusion.

The news makes it even more imperative that BioNTech comes up with a second act soon. Sahin has said it could launch multiple products in the next five years. It certainly has the ingredients: a full pipeline, the proven scientific acumen, and dedicated leadership. But much of the current valuation may be counting on vaccine demand persisting for a few years. If that falls off, it could be a bumpy ride for shareholders while they wait for an encore. 

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post 3 reasons to buy BioNTech, and 1 reason to sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What happened

BioNTech's (NASDAQ: BNTX) shares rose higher than that of the Nasdaq Composite index on Tuesday, which is impressive given that the latter vaulted a new all-time record. The company's stock advanced by 4.6% on the back of some happily surprising news for its investors.

So what

In its annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, BioNTech's COO and CFO Sierk Poetting revealed the company is considering a shareholder dividend. 

"In the next financial year, the Management Board and the Supervisory Board will examine, in accordance with the legal and statutory provisions, whether and in what amount a resolution on the distribution of dividends should be proposed to the Annual General Meeting," he said.

Poetting did not speculate about said amount, nor did he provide a more specific time frame. He did point out that, thanks in no small part to the flotation of new stock last year, the biotech's cash and cash equivalents more than doubled year over year at the end of 2020. As of Dec. 31 of that year, they stood at slightly over 1.21 billion euros ($1.44 billion), from the end-of-2019 tally of 519 million euros ($617 million).

Now what

BioNTech is busy developing messenger RNA (mRNA) treatments such as the wildly successful BNT162b2 coronavirus vaccine it collaborated on with Pfizer. While a dividend will make the stock that much more attractive, it likely won't be large, given the ambitious biotech's still-considerable need to spend capital in other areas (notably research and development).

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Why BioNTech trounced the Market on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Volatility has returned to the stock market, but finally, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) is starting to make waves once again. The tech-heavy index is making a run toward all-time highs, trading within 1% of its high-water mark on Monday afternoon. As of just before 2 p.m. EDT today, the Nasdaq was higher by three-quarters of a percent.

It wasn't that long ago that investors figured that stocks of COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers had already seen their best days. Companies like Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) had seen their share prices start to give up ground as many believed that a vaccinated world would eventually cause revenue and profits to dry up for the vaccine makers. Now, though, it's becoming increasingly clear that the two companies could well have a much brighter future than many had thought.

More moves for Moderna and BioNTech

Shares of the vaccine manufacturers were among the leaders on the Nasdaq today. Moderna's gains amounted to more than 5%, while BioNTech boasted gains of 6% or more on the day.

The general sentiment toward BioNTech and Moderna has been positive because of just how effective their vaccines have been. Last month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest figures on efficacy for the messenger-RNA-based vaccines from the two companies. Data from real-life use showed a reduction in infection risks of 91%. Those who got infected had a 60% lower risk of showing symptoms, and they spent on average six days fewer being sick and two days fewer stuck in bed recovering.

In addition, the companies have benefited from sustained demand for COVID vaccines from countries around the world. On Monday, BioNTech said that it had received provision approval of its vaccine from regulators in New Zealand. Over the weekend, the government of the Philippines announced a 40-million-dose agreement with BioNTech and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) for more vaccine doses as well.

More broadly, some health officials have started talking about the potential need for vaccine booster shots. It's uncertain at this point whether and how quickly antibody levels from initial vaccinations decline, and so it's entirely possible that even those who've already received vaccinations could need additional doses in the future. From a business standpoint, that would create even further demand for Moderna and BioNTech that could dramatically lengthen the expected flow of revenue stemming from COVID vaccines.

Will existing vaccines be enough?

The biggest threat on the COVID front comes from the potential for the virus to mutate into more-dangerous variants. Already, the Delta variant has proved to be more easily transmitted among infected patients and with more-severe health impacts. Future variants could prove even more problematic, and there's no guarantee that existing vaccines will provide protection against them all.

For the most part, both Moderna's and BioNTech's stock prices seem to reflect little expectation of success beyond the current COVID vaccine products. Yet if anything, COVID has proved that the broader-based investing thesis behind mRNA-based treatment development is sound. Both companies have plans for vaccines and other treatments for a wider variety of different medical conditions, and success anywhere on that front could provide the positive surprise investors need to gain confidence in the long-term futures of these stocks.

If you made the mistake of thinking that COVID vaccine stocks would be done once much of the U.S. population had been vaccinated, you aren't alone. But you might be surprised at how much staying power BioNTech and Moderna could have -- especially if a few things end up working out in their favor.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post If you thought these 2 big Nasdaq winners were done, think again appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

On Thursday, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) announced it has filed for Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine in adolescents from 12 to 18. If the agency gives Moderna a green light, parents will have another vaccine option beyond Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech's (NASDAQ: BNTX) vaccine, which was approved for ages 12 to 18 in May.

The coronavirus can be spread easily, and so far, over 174 million cases and 3.7 million deaths have been attributed to the disease worldwide.

Drugmakers including Moderna have developed vaccines to help prevent severe disease, and over the past few months, governments have made significant progress in vaccinating adult populations. For example, over 304 million COVID vaccine doses have been administered in the U.S., with 52% of Americans having received at least one dose.

The vaccination rate in children is lower, with only 23% of Americans under 18 having received at least one dose, but that rate should improve as more vaccines secure FDA approval. The agency expanded emergency use of Pfizer's COVID vaccine to include children over 12 last month, and a meeting of its advisory committee to discuss vaccinating adolescents is happening this week. 

Investigators observed no COVID cases in Moderna's study of patients ages 12 to 18, and safety outcomes were similar to those for adults, suggesting the vaccine could win emergency approval soon.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Moderna files for FDA approval of its COVID vaccine in teens appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

On Tuesday, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) reported highly successful results from a clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine in patients ages 12 to 17. Depending on how you look at the top-line data from the TeenCove study, mRNA-1273 was found to be between 93% and 100% effective at preventing new cases.

The TeenCOVE trial enrolled over 3,700 12- to 17-year-old participants. Going by the primary case definition of COVID-19, from a period starting 14 days after their second dose, none of the volunteers who received the vaccine have tested positive. And although new case numbers are plummeting across the country, four of the volunteers who received the placebo did test positive for COVID-19.

Since teenagers are far less likely to present symptoms of COVID-19 when they're infected, investigators also used a more sensitive definition of COVID-19 positivity that requires just one symptom plus a positive nasal swab test. Based on those looser criteria, the vaccine was still 93% effective at preventing new cases.

The TeenCove trial results Moderna reported Tuesday stack up nicely against those reported in March by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) for their rival mRNA vaccine, Comirnaty. That said, comparisons between the two teen trials should be taken with a grain of salt. Pfizer and BioNTech ran their U.S.-based clinical trial in 12- to 15-year-olds at a time when far more Americans were contracting the virus.

Moderna plans to submit a completed data package from the TeenCOVE study to the FDA in early June. Given that its top-line results are roughly in line with those that earned Pfizer and BioNTech a green light for their vaccine to be administered to teens, we can reasonably expect a similar response from the regulator within a few days of its receiving Moderna's submission.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Moderna's teen COVID-19 vaccine trial hits high marks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Despite some good news recently about the coronavirus vaccine it co-developed, BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) has been hit with a recommendation downgrade.

In a research note published on Tuesday, Bryan Garnier analyst Olga Smolentseva changed her view on the stock to neutral from the previous buy recommendation. At the same time, though, she significantly raised her price target on the stock, from $135 per share to $206.

BioNTech shot to fame last year due to that vaccine, BNT162b2, which it co-developed with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. Both became popular coronavirus stocks, particularly after the jab was authorized for emergency use in both the the U.S. and the European Union -- two massive markets -- in December.

This pushed BioNTech's results high into the sky; last Friday, the company unveiled its first-quarter results, showing higher-than-expected revenue growth of nearly 7,300% and a flip deep into the black on the bottom line.

BNT162b2 should find its way into more American arms; on Monday, the FDA expanded its Emergency Use Authorization for the vaccine to include adolescents ages 12 to 15. The regulator quoted its acting commissioner, Janet Woodcock, as saying that this "allows for a younger population to be protected from COVID-19, bringing us closer to returning to a sense of normalcy and to ending the pandemic."

But many investors might consider BioNTech's explosive growth story to be over. In terms of both cases and fatalities, the pandemic is receding across the U.S., plus the Biden administration has indicated its support for patent waivers on coronavirus vaccines.

At any rate, Smolentseva's new outlook on the stock isn't doing it any favors. In late afternoon trading Tuesday, BioNTech was down by 2.2% while the S&P 500 index was falling 1.9%.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post BioNTech is no longer a buy, says analyst appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In a widely expected move, the Food and Drug Administration has expanded its emergency use authorization for Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech's (NASDAQ: BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine to include people as young as 12 years old.

The widened authorization for BNT162b2 was based on the ability of the vaccine to induce the production of COVID-19 antibodies; the levels of antibodies it generated in clinical trial participants ages 12 through 15 were at least as good as the antibody levels in participants in the 16-to-25 age range.

Those antibodies appear to protect patients from being infected by the coronavirus.

Measured starting one week after they received their second doses of BNT162b2, none of the 1,005 adolescents who were inoculated developed COVID-19. Among the 978 trial participants who received placebo shots, there were 16 cases of COVID-19. That equates to a finding of 100% protection, although the numbers in the study were relatively small.

The side effect profile for the adolescents was similar to that seen in those 16 and older. In both groups, people had more side effects after the second dose than the first dose.

Pfizer and BioNTech beat Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) to the finish line in terms of gaining FDA authorization for their vaccine to be administered to adolescents. However, BNT162b2's period of exclusivity in that demographic, which presumably will only last for a couple of months, isn't likely to be much of a financial advantage. Large sales contracts with the U.S. government are already in place for both mRNA vaccines, so opening the use of BNT162b2 to a wider age group won't increase its sales. Until another vaccine is authorized for adolescents, some of Pfizer's doses will be used for adolescents, and any supply tightening that might cause for the adult demographic will be filled by Moderna's vaccine or Johnson & Johnson's.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine authorized by the FDA for adolescents appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Ask A Fund Manager

In part 1 of our interview, Platinum Asset Management portfolio manager Dr Bianca Ogden took us through her journey from working in healthcare to finance. Now in part 2, she uses that insider knowledge to pick 2 underrated stocks plus 2 others that will continue to bathe in sunshine.

Overrated and underrated shares

The Motley Fool: What's your most underrated healthcare share at the moment?

Dr Bianca Ogden: I've got several of them. So, there's always some. 

There is a company in the US called Coherus Biosciences Inc. 

It's a company that works in the biosimilar space. It has an approved product for a biosimilar that basically is taking share from one of the branded products that has come off patent. 

And it's got sales, it's got profits – it's doing quite well. But people get a bit bored and just say, 'Well, there's price competition. And they will kind of lose out in the end'. But what this company has done is build a pipeline. 

It's got a very interesting deal with a Chinese company called Junshi Bio. Essentially Coherus is the US arm now for Junshi. And I think over time, this company will have nice growth ahead of it.

But at the moment, the market doesn't find that very interesting. It's not a genomics company, it's not a gene therapy company or proteomics company. It's just a normal company that has built great commercial infrastructure. And it's going to plug in different products now to utilise that commercial infrastructure.

I've got another one in China. There's a company called CStone Pharmaceuticals. While other biotechs in China have done quite well, this one is kind of lagging – but it has a lot of interesting products to launch. Pfizer has a stake in it. So I kind of like it as it's off people's radar screen.

MF: What do you think is the most overrated stock at the moment?

BO: I tend not to have overrated stocks.

MF: Not even all the companies that are involved in COVID-19 vaccines – you wouldn't say they're overrated now?

BO: I own several of them. And to be honest, I think with mRNA, I think there is a different story to it as well. Yeah, I think there is a bit of excitement in that, but in the end, it's long term… Although we have sold out of Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA), we still have BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) and others in there.

So, no, I wouldn't totally characterise that they're [too] hot because in the end, we will all have to have at some stage in our life, mRNA vaccines.

MF: Is it fair to say that the COVID-19 vaccines really put mRNA technology into the mainstream consciousness?

BO: We've been owners of this technology for quite some time, for a couple of years. But yeah, I think in the mainstream it's there [now].

I think we're probably now trying to work out how big can this class be and where can it go? There's a bit of work to go into it until we twiddle that all out. But yeah, I think it definitely is something that it has put itself on the map now as a modality, which is great.

MF: If the market closed tomorrow for 5 years, which stock would you want to hold?

BO: I would hold onto a company called Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. Recently listed. We have known this company for a little while.

That's a company that really is trying to industrialise drug discovery. And for me, in the next 5 years that will be an interesting one to hold. They have their work cut out, but I think they've done quite an interesting job of putting automation into drug discovery.

MF: Did you manage to buy some during the initial public offering?

BO: Yes, we did. So, we kind of know the team there. [The IPO price] was $18.

I think if this company sets out what they want to do, the sky's the limit. It is really to try to industrialise drug discovery, which we're seeing gradually.

Looking back

MF: Which stock are you most proud of from a past purchase?

BO: Look, I think most proud of, I think is probably mRNA. Did I ever suspect it would happen that way? No. But it's a classic example of how Platinum or how I do my work is I go where others don't really want to go. 

I remember me telling someone how I was excited about mRNA [during] Moderna's IPO and about BioNTech's in 2018, 2019. They looked at me and thought I was absolutely nuts. 

But look, we always try and get to know the management. What do they do? And how has it evolved over time? What mistakes have they made? What have they learned? And we did exactly that. And these guys have absolutely come through with the goods.

That is quite exciting to see. And it gives you confidence because you just think that, 'Well no, this is right how we do it' – and ignore the crowds. 

MF: In pre-pandemic days, would you fly to the US often to meet with management?

BO: I like to go and see the scientists in their habitat… Often biotechs are quite small, where you go and make your coffee or tea with the CEO, and you chat and you get to know them.

What I find fascinating is when they make mistakes – things fail often in this industry – how do you motivate your scientists to keep going and to just dust yourself off to do the next thing? 

I think you only get to know that when you spend a bit of time and see what the office looks like. Do they have vampires when you walk in? Do they make their own tea? 

MF: Is there a move that you regret from the past? For example, a missed opportunity or buying a stock at the wrong timing or price.

BO: I think in this field, there are always missed opportunities… There's so many great things happening.

MF: Yeah, you can't buy everything, can you?

BO: No. And you have to put that past you. But one of the biggest regrets I have is that you never have enough [invested], never invested or backed yourself fully. Because as a human, you always have some doubts. So you always try to plan. 

I think one of the big things is biotechs can blow up. So you always are probably more cautious. But I think one of the things that I've learned over the years is, you've got to back yourself and you've just got to keep getting better at it. You can't beat yourself up. 

For example, Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd, we picked very early. Their division in oncology [was] really changing. We sold out too early, because we thought, 'Look, we doubled our money. That'd be fine'.

Same with AstraZeneca plc (LON: AZN). So, over time you get better at it, but the big thing is you got to learn from it and you got to assess it and just work on it.

MF: To a lot of retail investors, they would see the biotech or even the healthcare sector as 'high risk, high reward'. Is that a fair characterisation?

BO: I think if you don't invest for the long-term, yeah, you can look at it that way. [Some] of my best investments have also been companies that had a setback.

Given my experience… I kind of know when to go back in and when to say, 'Okay, they have a great R&D engine'. They can come up with the next [thing] – and it wasn't their fault, it was just a normal setback during clinical trials. That's what happens'.

And then you make your 300%, 400% return. So yeah, I can see that from the outside, but to me, no, I don't really see the volatility. 

It's never nice when something falls… But in the end, if there is a good foundation, good people and a plan B, these companies come good very quickly again.

The post 4 healthcare share tips from a fundie with a health PhD appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE)'s success in developing an effective COVID-19 vaccine in record time has given the pharmaceutical giant the confidence to invest heavily in the technology that underpins that vaccine. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, CEO Albert Bourla revealed that Pfizer plans to become a leader in the development of new vaccines that rely on messenger RNA (mRNA).

Unfortunately for BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), those plans don't rely on a continuation of the collaboration agreement that brought the world its first authorized mRNA-based vaccine. According to Bourla, Pfizer doesn't need to work with BioNTech anymore because it has the expertise to develop those new vaccines on its own.

Pfizer still has options to license two more BioNTech vaccines, one directed against cytomegalovirus (CMV) and another meant to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Despite a great deal of effort over the past 50 years, there still aren't any effective vaccines approved to protect against those viruses. 

If Pfizer can rapidly develop new mRNA vaccines as Bourla suggests, it's easy to see why the company would rather strike out on its own. Pfizer and BioNTech are splitting the profits on BNT162b2 evenly at the moment. It's hard to say how much will hit their bottom lines, but the partners expect sales of the COVID-19 vaccine to reach around $15 billion this year.

If it turns out that annual booster shots are not needed, coronavirus vaccine sales could taper off significantly before the end of 2022, then dwindle to nearly nothing by 2024. BioNTech will have plenty of cash to fund the development of new mRNA drugs on its own, but competing with Pfizer will be a challenge. Bourla also said Pfizer intends to apply recently learned lessons to develop new mRNA vaccines at a blistering pace in the future.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Pfizer to develop mRNA vaccines without BioNTech appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The United States now has a third coronavirus vaccine authorised for use. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)'s vaccine, developed by its subsidiary Janssen, received Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) from the FDA on Saturday. This followed a unanimous vote by the regulator's vaccines and related biological products advisory committee that it do so.

In contrast to the two shots required for both of the other FDA-authorised coronavirus vaccines -- Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA)'s mRNA-1273 and Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX)'s BNT162b2 -- Johnson & Johnson's is a one-shot inoculation. 

It also has relatively less burdensome storage requirements, as it can be kept for as long as three months in standard refrigeration temperatures of 36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine demonstrated notably lower efficacy (72%) in late-stage testing compared the 95% or so of its two peers. However, 72% is still considered unusually high by vaccine development standards, plus Johnson & Johnson's was shown to be 100% efficacious in preventing hospitalisation and death. 

The Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech shots were authorised in December and so far have been administered to nearly 15% of the US population. So it's likely that Johnson & Johnson's jab won't lap past them, no matter its advantages. It will, however, help push the inoculation rate up quickly.

Investors should be aware that Johnson & Johnson won't be making money from the vaccine during the pandemic. As it reiterated in the press release trumpeting the EUA, it will provide the jab "on a not-for-profit basis for emergency pandemic use."

The company added that it has already started to ship the vaccine, with the goal of delivering enough to inoculate over 20 million people in the US by the end of March. 100 million doses should be shipped by the end of June.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine wins FDA authorisation appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This has been a trying year for America and the world. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has infected more than 69 million people worldwide (almost 16 million in the U.S.) and has led to the deaths of nearly 1.6 million people, per Johns Hopkins University of Medicine. The U.S. is closing in on 300,000 deaths from COVID-19 since the outbreak began.

But there also appears to be light at the end of the tunnel. In November, a handful of drug developers released positive late-stage interim and final analysis data from their ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) announced 95% vaccine effectiveness (VE) for BNT162b2 in a final analysis of its phase 3 study.

Meanwhile, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) announced that its vaccine candidate (mRNA-1273) produced a VE of 94.1% in a late-stage primary efficacy analysis in its COVE study. With researchers expecting a VE more in line with influenza (50% to 60%), a 90%+ VE gives the U.S. and world a real chance to halt the pandemic in its tracks within the next year. 

However, what's good for humanity isn't always good news for investors.

From clinical-stage company to overnight blockbuster

This year, few stocks have been hotter than Moderna, with shares of the company up 708%. Investors are clearly excited about the possibility of mRNA-1273 getting a positive review from a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) panel on Dec. 17. Having partnered with Lonza Group, Moderna anticipates producing 20 million doses in December, another 100 million to 125 million doses for the first quarter, and anywhere from 500 million to 1 billion doses in 2021.

Just days after Moderna released its interim analysis data, its CEO Stephane Bancel told a German news publication that his company intends to charge between $25 and $37 per dose of its vaccine. The price will vary based on how much of the vaccine a country buys (larger purchases will net a lower average price). Like the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, Moderna's mRNA-1273 is given in two doses a few weeks apart. 

Assuming Moderna is able to reach the low end of its projection of 500 million doses in 2021, it would generate at least $12.5 billion in revenue from mRNA-1273. That would make it one of the world's top-selling drugs overnight. 

What's more, Moderna's vaccine can be maintained for up to 30 days at standard refrigerator temperature (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit), and stored for up to six months at -4 F. That compares to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine candidate, which needs to be stored at closer to -100 F during transport. This creates distributional challenges for the latter that clearly favor Moderna. 

Sounds like a slam-dunk investment, right? At a $62 billion market cap, you may want to rethink that thesis.

Moderna looks like Gilead Sciences 2.0 -- and that's not a good thing

Though Moderna looks to have a pretty clear path to being one of two early entrants in the COVID-19 vaccine space, it's unlikely to hang on the first-or-second-mover advantage for very long. We know this, because we've seen it play out before.

In 2013-2014, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) dazzled the world and investment community when it brought hepatitis C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni to market. Before these therapeutics, treatments for Hep C were notoriously hit-and-miss, with patients usually experiencing a laundry list of unpleasant side effects. Gilead's treatment solutions provided a cure for more than nine in 10 patients, and the company was rewarded handsomely for it. In 2014, Gilead recorded $24.5 billion in net product sales, up from $10.8 billion in the previous year, with Harvoni and Sovaldi combining for $12.4 billion. Long story short, Gilead's first-mover advantage allowed it to scoop up the low-hanging fruit (patients with obvious Hep C symptoms). 

However, Gilead was met in the years that followed by a steady increase in competition. With roughly a half-dozen competing Hep C therapies, and many of the sickest patients treated, Gilead's Hep C drug sales declined to just $2.9 billion in 2019. 

Moderna is facing a similar fate. There are around two dozen COVID-19 vaccine candidates in development, and if even a half-dozen are successful within the next six to 12 months, it could potentially halve Moderna's revenue potential.

But wait -- there's more

Keep in mind that there's more to be concerned about than just two dozen other drug developers angling for their piece of the coronavirus vaccine pie.

For example, the Pifzer/BioNTech vaccine may offer more distributional challenges, but it'll be priced at $19.50 per dose. Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, which doesn't have nearly the same transparency of clinical data as you'll find in the Pfizer/BioNTech study or Moderna trial, will sell to international governments for under $10 per dose. The point is, Moderna's vaccine might be the high-water mark on price, which could potentially cost the company orders or pressure it to cut its price. 

We're also missing some very critical data from these COVID-19 vaccine trials. For instance, we don't know if person-to-person transmission is possible after being given these vaccines. But more importantly, we have no clue what sort of duration of immunity these vaccines will provide. Without this knowledge, attempting to value Moderna is akin to throw darts at the dartboard while wearing a blindfold.

Moderna is also a one-pony act. Though its pipeline features over a dozen ongoing clinical-stage studies and another eight preclinical/partnered programs, Moderna's next-closest vaccine to reach FDA approval and distribution is, at the earliest, about four years away -- assuming everything goes right. This is a company that's going to be singularly reliant on mRNA-1273 for the next three to four years, at minimum. 

Typically, biotech stocks are valued at a multiple that ranges between 3 and 6 times their peak annual sales potential. In 2021, with potentially 500 million doses being sold ($12.5 billion), Moderna's valuation would appear to make sense. But by 2023, total sales are likely to shrink to between $4 billion and $5 billion as new vaccines enter the market. Paying 12 to 15 times sales for 2023 is absurd for what might be a one-trick wonder.

Moderna does have plenty of cash, so it's not a threat to simply disappear overnight. But there's a very good chance that the world's most popular coronavirus stock will lose at least half of its value by 2023.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post The most popular coronavirus stock may lose half its value by 2023 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price is edging higher today, up 0.2% in afternoon trading.

That's broadly in line with the wider S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), up 0.4% at time of writing.

With a history of generally delivering fairly steady share price growth, 2020 has been unusually volatile for CSL shareholders. While there are various reasons for this, traders jumping in and out of shares based on the latest COVID-19 vaccine news have certainly helped stir this year's share price volatility.

CSL and the University of Queensland (UQ) have been working collaboratively on a coronavirus vaccine since the outset of the pandemic.

The sprint to the finish line looks to have been won by the mRNA vaccines developed by Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA), along with the partnered efforts of Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX).

But the experts at CSL and the UQ believe their own efforts may prove more valuable in the long run.

More on that below. But first…

What does CSL do?

CSL is a global biotechnology company that develops and delivers innovative biotherapies and influenza vaccines.

CSL's operational business segments include CSL Behring and Seqirus. The company operates predominantly in Australia, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.

CSL shares first began trading on the ASX in 1994 and today it ranks among the largest companies on the ASX 200. At the current share price, CSL pays a 1% dividend yield, unfranked. The company paid out both dividends for 2020.

Why could CSL's COVID vaccine prove to be better?

Professor Paul Young is the head of the UQ program developing a COVID vaccine together with CSL.

Addressing their vaccine, Young said (as quoted by the Australian Financial Review):

It is a more traditional vaccine. I think it will be a far more robust vaccine . . . and a better option for the long term. So I still think it's an important vaccine even though we're a little bit behind the mRNA vaccines.

Data from the group's phase 1 trial is expected soon, with phase 2 and 3 trials scheduled to commence in December. Young said if the trials are successful, their vaccine could be ready for wider use in Australia by mid-2021.

Young also highlighted the historic shortage of medicinal manufacturing capabilities in Australia:

Our sovereign capacity is not perhaps what it could have been. Our technology has led into CSL's technology just beautifully. That was an excellent marriage. But, many of the other vaccine types that could have been developed in Australia haven't been able to progress because there hasn't been the infrastructure to take them into the next stage of development.

Although CSL is working on other projects and has numerous successes under its belt, the pending success or failure of its COVID vaccine is likely to have a significant impact on its share price.

The post CSL (ASX:CSL) share price on watch after hints of 'far more robust' vaccine appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What happened

Shares of Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) climbed on Wednesday after the pharmaceutical titan and biotech announced a major development in the battle against COVID-19. As of 2:40 p.m. EST, Pfizer's and BioNTech's stocks were up 3% and 5.6%, respectively.

So what

A phase 3 trial showed Pfizer's and BioNTech's vaccine candidate BNT162b2 to be as much as 95% effective at preventing COVID-19. And importantly, BNT162b2 was generally well tolerated with no serious safety concerns observed among the study's participants to date. This promising data prompted the U.K. government to grant emergency authorization for the COVID-19 vaccine. 

"Today's Emergency Use Authorization in the U.K. marks a historic moment in the fight against COVID-19," Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a press release. "This authorization is a goal we have been working toward since we first declared that science will win."

Pfizer and BioNTech have agreed to supply the U.K. with 40 million doses of the vaccine. The healthcare companies will begin delivering the vaccine immediately, with the first doses expected to arrive in the coming days. 

Now what 

The U.K.'s decision is a major step forward in the war against the dangerous disease. COVID-19 case counts remain at alarmingly high levels in many areas of the world. A safe and effective vaccine could help to slow the spread of the disease and eventually help to bring about an end to the pandemic.

Pfizer and BioNTech stand ready to deliver their vaccine to more countries in the weeks ahead. They have requested emergency authorization from health regulators in the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) are expected to announce their decisions later this month.

"As we anticipate further authorizations and approvals, we are focused on moving with the same level of urgency to safely supply a high-quality vaccine around the world," Bourla said. "With thousands of people becoming infected, every day matters in the collective race to end this devastating pandemic."

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Why Pfizer and BioNTech stocks popped Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) appears to be likely to be the first drugmaker, along with its partner BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), to win U.S. emergency use authorization (EUA) for a coronavirus vaccine. AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), with plans to produce up to 3 billion doses next year, might distribute more doses of its COVID-19 vaccine globally than any other company.

Do these leading positions mean that Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) is playing second fiddle in the coronavirus vaccine race? Not for investors. Here are three key advantages that Moderna holds over both Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

1. No sharing required

Many of us were taught in kindergarten that it's good to share -- and our kindergarten teachers were right. In the biopharmaceutical world, though, sharing profits can translate to slower growth. Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca will share the rewards gained from their COVID vaccines.

Pfizer, as mentioned earlier, teamed up with BioNTech on coronavirus vaccine candidate BNT162b2. The big drugmaker forked over $72 million in cash to its partner, and bought a $113 million stake in the German biotech. BioNTech is also eligible to receive milestone payments of up to $563 million. The two companies didn't reveal how they're splitting revenue and profits on any sales of BNT162b2, but Pfizer certainly won't pocket all of the money the vaccine could make.

AstraZeneca partnered with the University of Oxford to develop and distribute experimental COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222. No financial details of the collaboration were announced. However, you can bet that Oxford will receive some level of royalties from any sales of the vaccine.

Meanwhile, Moderna has full ownership of COVID-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273, and doesn't have to share any potential revenue or profits from sales of the vaccine. Granted, Arbutus Biopharma owns the patent to lipid nanoparticle (LNP) technology used in the past by Moderna. However, Moderna has publicly stated that mRNA-1273 doesn't use any technology covered by Arbutus' patent.

2. Platform possibilities

If AstraZeneca wins regulatory approvals for AZD1222, the company has no other vaccine candidates that use similar technology waiting in the wings. It's the same story for Pfizer. However, good news for Moderna's mRNA-1273 could bode well for the rest of the biotech's pipeline.

Moderna hopes to leverage commercial success for mRNA-1273 into a full-blown mRNA (messenger RNA) platform. In addition to mRNA-1273, the company's pipeline currently includes 12 other mRNA vaccines and therapies in clinical testing. Moderna thinks it could expand that number to as many as 50 clinical-stage programs if the anticipated big bucks from mRNA-1273 begin to pour in.

Believe it or not, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel thinks that the biotech could even become the biggest vaccine company in the world within the next four years. That view could be overly optimistic, but Moderna should grow at a much faster rate than AstraZeneca or Pfizer because of its platform possibilities.

3. Size

Last -- and least, in a literal sense -- is Moderna's size advantage over Pfizer and AstraZeneca. You might be thinking, "What size advantage?" After all, Pfizer's market cap tops $200 billion. AstraZeneca's market cap is close to $140 billion. Moderna is tiny in comparison, with a market cap in the ballpark of $50 billion. However, Moderna's smaller size is actually a big advantage.

It's not surprising at all that Moderna's stock gains so far in 2020 have been a lot better than the performances turned in by AstraZeneca and Pfizer. That's because positive developments for mRNA-1273 have moved the needle a lot more for Moderna than similar positive developments for AZD1222 and BNT162b2 have done for AstraZeneca and Pfizer, respectively.

Moderna still has a lot more room to run than either AstraZeneca or Pfizer. An additional $5 billion to $10 billion annually would be nice for these two big drugmakers, but wouldn't cause either of the two pharma stocks to skyrocket. On the other hand, that kind of revenue would likely light a fire beneath Moderna's share price.

We should soon know if mRNA-1273 will win EUA in the U.S. and regulatory approvals in other countries. If it does, Moderna stands to make billions of dollars in a short period. Its size, combined with its full ownership of its COVID vaccine and its platform possibilities, will almost certainly make Moderna a much bigger winner again in 2021 than AstraZeneca and Pfizer.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post 3 key advantages Moderna holds over Pfizer and AstraZeneca appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In the last three weeks, the world has let out a collective sigh of relief on positive news from coronavirus vaccine trials reported by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and partner BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN). But while the market cheered more than 90% efficacy of the first two vaccine candidates, the results from AstraZeneca's clinical trials were met with more of a shrug. Despite the market's reaction, I think investors have more to be excited about from the potential AstraZeneca vaccine than its efficacy data suggests. 

When effectiveness isn't really effectiveness

With so many vaccines under development – the New York Times' Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker lists 74 in clinical trials or approved for limited use – it can be difficult to understand what might make any one vaccine better than the others. One clear way is knowing how effective they are at preventing the disease. But as it turns out, even that can be a little misleading.

AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford's recent announcement that their vaccine candidate had 70% overall effectiveness at preventing COVID-19 requires a little more digging. This number was generated from two arms of the vaccine trial, one that received two full doses of the vaccine a month apart, and one that initially received only a half dose. When reviewing each arm separately, it's clear the cohort who received only half a dose initially demonstrated 90% effectiveness. That's not too different from Moderna and Pfizer's candidates, which showed 94.5% and 95% efficacy, respectively. 

Although the difference in efficacy could disappear with more data collection, researchers have at least two theories about why a smaller initial dose might have led to better prevention rates. First, the lower initial dose of the vaccine might just do a better job at stimulating the immune cells that create antibodies. Another theory is that the vaccine triggers an immune response to both SARS-CoV-2 and the adenovirus used to deliver the vaccine into cells. If the vaccine causes a response to the very virus used to deliver it, cutting the initial dose in half could actually allow more of the vaccine to make it into cells. This explanation is also supported by non-COVID-19 research in mice, in which a lower initial dose of a vaccine better established the memory immune cells needed when the second dose was delivered.

Why effectiveness is not the most important factor

So far the vaccines that have reported results have shown remarkable effectiveness. After all, even the arm of the AstraZeneca trial that showed poorer results demonstrated 62% effectiveness – better than most years' versions of the flu vaccine, which range from 40% to 60% efficacy. Once you have a vaccine that is reasonably effective, other factors contribute much more to how many people end up getting vaccinated, and whether a disease can be eventually slowed or even stopped. 

How easy a drug is to manufacture and distribute, whether it causes side effects, and how it affects different groups of people are all considerations that can leave a scientific marvel stuck in the lab – or turn a drug that breaks no new ground into a widely adopted standard. Unlike the gene-based vaccines from the Pfizer-BioNTech partnership or Moderna, the AstraZeneca vaccine relies on the chimpanzee adenovirus. The former two vaccines are based on synthetic messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that has never once been used in an FDA-approved drug. The use of chimpanzee adenovirus by AstraZeneca was first published in 1984 and is now widely used as a way to deliver medicines. 

Another key element is transmission. While neither the Pfizer nor the Moderna vaccine was evaluated for the ability to limit transmission – only those with symptoms were tested – participants in the AstraZeneca trial routinely swabbed themselves whether they had symptoms or not. The data collected leads researchers to believe that the vaccine does indeed prevent transmission of COVID-19, even from those who are not showing any symptoms. Furthermore, not only did the vaccine protect people of all ages, it generated the same amount of antibodies in participants whether they were young or old – a great sign, because the disease often takes its most severe toll on the elderly. AstraZeneca also reported no serious illnesses in the 23,000 trial participants. 

The logistical challenges of manufacturing and transporting millions of doses of a vaccine might end up being the difference between a cool scientific breakthrough and ending the pandemic. While Pfizer's vaccine must be stored at negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit – requiring a special case and dry ice to be transported – the AstraZeneca vaccine can be stored at normal refrigeration temperatures. This is even an advantage over the Moderna vaccine, which can be housed for a month at normal refrigeration temperatures but requires negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit for longer storage. Most countries either do not have the "cold-chain" capabilities to store these vaccines for very long, or their capacity is extremely limited.

The most important reasons to be excited

It may seem like all of these reasons are enough to be excited about the AstraZeneca vaccine, but I haven't even gotten to the best parts: cost and production. While Pfizer and Moderna have agreements in place for vaccines in the range of $20 to $40 per dose, AstraZeneca has pledged not to make a profit during the pandemic. Its price, around $2.50 per dose, coupled with the less-stringent refrigeration requirements, will make vaccination much easier in countries without a wide social safety net or relatively rich population. That may not seem as important if you are sitting in front of a computer in the Western world, but in the words of one public health expert at the University of Oxford, "no one is safe until everyone is safe."

Unlike Pfizer and Moderna, which together think they will produce enough doses for 20 million people by the end of the year, AstraZeneca plans to have 200 million doses ready by the end of 2020, 700 million by the end of the March 2021, and as many as 3 billion doses through next year. Of all the reasons to be excited about the AstraZeneca vaccine, this is my absolute favorite: production. This rate will be enough to more than satisfy the big pharma company's agreement with the US for 300 million doses and Europe for 400 million. It isn't clear how many doses will initially be available for Europe and the US, but ending the pandemic will mean getting a vaccine to as many people as possible. From what I can tell, AstraZeneca just took the largest leap toward that goal, despite the lackluster market reaction.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Why AstraZeneca's potential vaccine is more exciting than you think appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.