The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is in the green amid news the company's planned takeover of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper giant Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) has been approved by regulators in Brazil.

That's one less hurdle the $9.6 billion acquisition has to face. Though, it's still conditional on shareholder and court approval.

It also comes as the mining sector bounces back from Friday's carnage. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) is currently up 0.79%.

Right now, the BHP share price is among the sector's front-runners, up 0.89% to trade at $48.335. In earlier trade, it shot 1.33% higher.

At the same time, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.05%.

Let's take a closer look at the latest on the ASX 200 iron ore miner's massive copper deal.

BHP share price lifts amid Oz Minerals regulatory approval

The BHP share price is rising amid news Brazil's Administrative Council for Economic Defence has given the company's planned acquisition of ASX 200 copper miner Oz Minerals its tick of approval.

A scheme booklet is expected to be sent to Oz Minerals shareholders early next month.

The takeover target accepted BHP's $28.25 per share bid in November. The Oz Minerals share price is currently $27.96, the same as Friday's closing price.

The acquisition is expected to face a shareholder vote in late March or early April, with the takeover implemented shortly afterwards.

The BHP share price might also be being impacted by iron ore's upwards movement today. Iron ore futures lifted 1.1% on Friday to reach US$125.26 a tonne. That marked a weekly gain of 2.1% despite Thursday's 1.9% fall.

The materials sector plunged 1.4% on Friday, likely partially driven by the steel-making ingredient's slump, with BHP shares closing the day 1.9% lower.

And it wasn't just Friday that saw the iron ore giant struggling. Its stock has been underperforming against the ASX 200 for a while now.

Shares in the mining monolith have gained around 6% so far this year while the ASX 200 has jumped nearly 9%. Looking longer term, BHP shares have gained 1% over the last 12 months compared to the index's 6% rise.

The post BHP share price jumps as Oz Minerals acquisition clears major hurdle appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge higher

The Australian share market looks set to rise slightly on Monday following a positive finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 12 points or 0.15% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25 %, and the NASDAQ stormed 0.95% higher.

Oil prices fall

It could be a difficult start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices pulled back on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 2% to US$79.38 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price fell 1% to US$86.66 a barrel. Oil prices fell in response to a stronger supply outlook.

ResMed rated as a buy

The ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) share price could be good value according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. In response to the sleep disorder treatment company's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $38.00. Goldman commented: "Steady improvements in diagnosis rates and supply chain could widen opportunity for share gains."

Quarterly updates

It is likely to be another day filled with quarterly updates. Among those scheduled to release updates this morning are rare earths producer Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) and copper miner and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) takeover target, OZ Minerals Ltd (ASX: OZL).

Gold price softens

Gold miners Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft start to the week after the gold price edged lower on Friday. According to CNBC, the spot gold price fell 0.1% to $1,927.6 per ounce. Despite this, the precious metal secured its sixth successive weekly gain.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is up a stellar 8.2% since the closing bell on 30 December.

That's despite today's 0.6% retrace following the hotter-than-expected CPI numbers just released by the ABS.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) iron ore giant is currently trading for $49.37. The BHP share price, as you can see in the chart below, closed out 2022 at $45.63.

Is it too late to buy?

With those kinds of gains already in the bag so early in 2023, is it too late to buy BHP shares?

The answer to that question largely relies on what happens with iron ore prices (the miner's top revenue earner) and copper prices (its number two revenue earner) over the coming months.

The BHP share price has already benefited from a big lift in the price of both metals in 2023.

Iron ore was trading for US$118 per tonne at beginning of the calendar year and is currently fetching US$125 per tonne, up 6%.

The copper price has gained even more, lifting 12% since 30 December to currently trade for US$9,315 per tonne.

And while no one has a working crystal ball, most analysts are tipping significant further gains for both industrial metals over the year ahead.

Iron ore could gain from increased demand out of China, as the world's most populous nation reopens following three years of pandemic lockdowns.

Copper could also benefit from China's reopening, while demand for the red metal is expected to continue to run high for its critical role in the world's transition towards electrification.

Both of these aspects would suggest it's not too late to buy, even after the big BHP share price rally.

On the copper front, Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeff Currie believes that in the "longer-term" the copper price will reach US$15,000 per tonne.

Citing "a structural imbalance in these markets", Currie said "You are likely to see peak copper supply in 2024."

As for iron ore, Morgan Stanley commodities strategist Marius van Straaten notes the commodity rally coming ahead of China's reopening is largely built on hype rather than actual increases in steel production.

According to van Straaten (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

The previous nine bull markets we looked at were all underpinned by either periods of expanding China steel production or tightening supply from the iron ore majors.

While China's steel mills have been restocking ore recently, this is basically the first serious bull market that is mostly driven by sentiment/optimism, rather than an actual physically tightening market.

Despite the current speculative-driven nature of the price increases, van Straaten sees iron ore trading for US$140 in the June quarter. That represents a 12% increase from today's levels and would certainly offer some helpful tailwinds for the BHP share price.

What else could boost the BHP share price in 2023?

Atop potentially rising iron ore and copper prices, the BHP share price could receive a boost should the miner's $28.25 per share (approximately $9.6 billion) cash takeover proposal of ASX 200 copper stock OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) go through.

The Oz Minerals board has unanimously recommended shareholders approve the acquisition. Shareholders are expected to vote on the proposal in late March or early April.

And let's not forget the juicy, fully franked dividends on offer.

At the current share price, BHP pays a 9.4% trailing dividend yield. That will place the big miner high on the radar of income investors, increasing the demand for (and potentially the price of) its shares in 2023.

The post The BHP share price has had a stellar start to 2023. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper shares could be in for some healthy tailwinds in 2023 as the price of the red metal is widely tipped to keep marching higher. 

That would certainly be good news for investors in blue-chip copper stocks like Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) and Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

What's happening with the copper price?

The copper price topped US$10,600 in March last year before sliding to lows of US$7,200 in July as soaring inflation and rising interest rates temporarily took the shine off the industrial metal.

2023 has seen the copper price march steadily higher, helping lift the prospects of ASX 200 copper shares.

Year-to-date copper has gained more than 12%, currently trading for US$9,315 per tonne.

That's helped propel the Sandfire Resources share price to a 20% gain so far in 2023.

Oz Minerals is a bit of a different story, due to the ongoing takeover process with BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

With BHP seeking to acquire Oz Minerals via a scheme of arrangement for a cash price of $28.25 per share, the ASX 200 copper share has been trading in a fairly narrow band over the past weeks.

Forecast outperformance could boost ASX 200 copper shares in 2023

Copper is already off to a strong start in 2023.

And according to the latest MLIV Pulse survey, reported by Bloomberg, professional and retail investors alike have pegged copper as "the most likely commodity to outperform when compared to oil, corn and gold".

Part of that investor bullishness comes from copper's widespread use in construction activities, with China's reopening from its zero-COVID forecast to boost demand for the metal.

Copper, a highly conductive metal, is also a vital element in EVs and the broader global march towards electrification.

Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeff Currie is among the analysts who believe the copper price will continue to increase in 2023, which would offer support for ASX 200 copper shares.

According to Currie:

Our target end of year is US$11,500…but longer term, we are in line with Trafigura, we see US$15,000 a tonne. You know, there's a structural imbalance in these markets. You are likely to see peak copper supply in 2024.

The post Investing in ASX 200 copper shares? Here's the outlook for the red metal in 2023 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is rising today amid news of a new copper deal.

BHP shares are climbing 0.73% and are currently trading at $49.76. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.05% today.

Let's take a look at what could be weighing on the BHP share price today.

What's going on?

BHP has entered a deal with Canadian company Mundoro Capital Inc. (TSXV: MUN) to explore copper in Serbia.

In a release overnight, Mundoro said it had entered into a "definitive agreement" with a wholly owned subsidiary of BHP. This will provide BHP with the right to earn an option in three copper exploration areas held by Mundoro.

The copper projects are located within and near the Timok Magmatic Complex in Serbia.

Commenting on the news, Mundoro CEO Teo Dechev said:

Mundoro welcomes BHP as an exploration partner that recognizes the potential of further exploration in the western Tethyan Belt. 

The news comes after BHP entered a scheme implementation deed to potentially acquire 100% of copper miner OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) in late December. The proposal is subject to approval by Oz Minerals shareholders at a meeting likely to be held in late March or early April 2023.

The copper price edged higher overnight amid stronger demand from China. Copper lifted 0.3% to US $9,356 a tonne. In a research note this morning, ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said:

Copper edged higher as supply risks added to the positive tone as investors look to stronger demand from China.

The reopening of the world's second largest economy is expected to unleash a wave of pent-up demand.

BHP is also a major iron ore producer. The iron ore price has fallen 0.18% to US$121.94 a tonne, trading economics data shows. The share price of fellow iron ore giant Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) is down 0.1% today, while Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) shares are climbing 0.4%.

BHP share price snapshot

The BHP share price has soared nearly 23% in the last year. In the past month, BHP shares have climbed 7.8%.

BHP has a market capitalisation of about $252 billion based on the current share price.

The post BHP share price lifts amid copper deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Goldman Sachs analysts are tipping the copper price to keep rising, despite the metal just topping its June high.

ASX mining shares with exposure to copper include Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL), Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) and Hot Chili Ltd (ASX: HCH).

Rio shares are leaping 1.4% today, while Sandfire Resources shares are leaping 1.21%. Hot Chili shares are leaping 5.06% and Oz Minerals shares are 0.02% in the green at the time of writing.

So what is the outlook for the copper price?

Copper price tipped to jump higher

The copper price hit US$9,000 a tonne this week on the London Metal Exchange, its highest level since June.

However, a Goldman Sachs commodities analyst is tipping it to reach US$11,500 a tonne by the end of the year and US$15,000 in the long term.

Commenting on Bloomberg TV, Goldman head of commodities research Jeff Currie said:

Our target end of year is US$11,500…but longer term, we are in line with Trafigura, we see US$15,000 a tonne.

You know, there's a structural imbalance in these markets. You are likely to see peak copper supply in 2024.

Oz Minerals operates the Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in South Australia. In December, Oz Minerals advised Prominent Hill ore reserves have lifted 23% to 59 Mt at 1.4% copper equivalent. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is proposing to acquire 100% of Oz Minerals, with a scheme meeting expected to take place in late March or early 2023 this year.

Rio Tinto explores copper from multiple projects globally and produced 138,000 tonnes of copper in the third quarter of 2022. This was a 10% lift on the third quarter of 2021. Sandfire is also developing multiple copper projects in the USA, Botswana, Spain and Australia. Hot Chili is developing the Costa Fuego copper hub in Chile.

Why is copper tipped to go higher?

Goldman's Currie highlighted the role of copper in decarbonisation, describing copper as "the new oil". He said:

You cannot decarbonise the world and use electricity to the extent we expect without substantial copper consumption.

Meanwhile, China's reopening is also being slated as a possible reason for investor optimism in the copper sector.

Marex analyst Alastair Munro, also commenting on Bloomberg, highlighted the impact of increased demand from China. He said:

You've got more of these commodity trade adviser and discretionary fund bids on copper. There has been Chinese buying onshore.

Share price snapshot

The Rio Tinto share price has leapt 13% in the last year

Oz Minerals shares have slid nearly 3% in the past 52 weeks.

Sandfire Resources shares have descended nearly 9% in the past year.

Hot Chili stocks have plummeted 45% in the last year.

The post Goldman tips continued surge in copper price. Which ASX mining shares might benefit? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In 2022 there was a deterioration in the copper price. That's despite some other commodities having a strong run such as lithium. While copper isn't involved with energy generation, it is playing an important part in the decarbonisation of the world. Copper is used in electricity cables.

Despite the recovery of the Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price in recent weeks, it's still down by 17% for the year.

There has been a prediction that next year could be good for the copper price, which could help copper miners including Sandfire, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS).

It may previously have been a help for the OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) share price too, but it has accepted a takeover offer from BHP.

Optimistic call on the copper price

According to reporting by CNBC, Bank of America commodity strategies think that the copper price could rally to US$12,000 per tonne in the second quarter if things go well.

However, the circumstances that could be required for that rally include the US Federal Reserve pivoting to a "less aggressive" monetary policy tightening, "limiting upside in the US dollar, and for demand to remain supported as the planned energy transition accelerates."

Commodity strategist Michael Widmer said in Bank of America's 2023 metals outlook report:

Notwithstanding the macro headwinds, physical markets have remained tight, highlighting the lack of spare copper units available at present.

Taking this a step further…China's grid spending has offset weakness in the wider economy: indeed, building out the electricity infrastructure has completely offset weakness in the housing market.

CNBC noted that the analyst wondered whether this is a one-off or the start of a structural trend. Widmer said that over the past year and a half there has been a break in the correlation between global copper demand and industrial production growth. Widmer concluded:

In our view, this confirms to some extent that green spending has already supported global copper demand and physical markets.

Bank of America data suggests that copper demand could grow by 4.5% year over year to 2030. That compares to demand growth of 2.1% over the past two decades.

Foolish takeaway

Higher demand could be very helpful for the copper price in the shorter term. Higher profit could then be a boost for the share prices of these ASX copper shares. How much of a boost? Time will tell, and it could depend on how the copper price performs. It's also possible things won't go as well as the optimistic view of Bank of America.

The post 3 ASX shares that could benefit from a predicted copper price boom next year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the mining giant's shares are up 1% to $46.77.

Why is the BHP share price rising?

Investors have been buying the Big Australian's shares this morning after it announced an agreement to acquire copper miner OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

According to the release, after a four-week exclusive due diligence period, the two parties have entered into a scheme implementation deed that will see BHP acquire 100% of OZL by way of a scheme of arrangement for a cash price of $28.25 per share.

This agreement is on the same terms as BHP's non-binding indicative proposal that was revealed on 18 November 2022.

The cash price of $28.25 per share equates to an enterprise value of $9.6 billion and represents a 49.3% premium to where OZ Minerals shares were trading prior to its initial proposal back on 5 August.

The scheme comes with a break fee of $95 million and allows for a dividend of up to $1.75 per share to be paid by OZ Minerals. However, the offer price will reduce in line with this dividend.

Unanimous support

The OZ Minerals board has unanimously recommended that its shareholders vote in favour of the scheme, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to the independent expert's report.

Each OZ Minerals director intends to vote their shares in favour of the scheme, subject to the same conditions.

BHP's CEO, Mike Henry, was pleased with the news and believes the combination of the two miners will unlock opportunities that wouldn't be possible separately. He said:

The combination of BHP and OZL's assets, skills and technical expertise provides a unique opportunity not available under separate ownership, with complementary resources including the Oak Dam exploration prospect and existing facilities within close proximity, backed by BHP's strong balance sheet, capital discipline and commitment to sustainable development. We thank the OZL Board and management for their engagement through the due diligence process and look forward to working together to continue to take steps forward to complete the transaction.

The post BHP share price higher on OZ Minerals $9.6b takeover agreement appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) plummeted in afternoon trade amid the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest meeting. The index closed Tuesday's session 1.54% lower at 7,024.3 points.

Also likely driving the market lower were announced changes to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The central bank has decided to modify the conduct of yield curve control.

Meanwhile, the RBA revealed it considered both hiking rates by 0.5% and keeping them flat amid continuous inflation at its last meeting of 2022. Of course, it ultimately declared a 0.25% hike earlier this month.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) outperformed for much of today following a strong night's trade for oil prices. However, by the end of Tuesday's trade, it had dropped 1.4%.

Coming in as today's top-performing sector was instead the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ), which dropped 0.1%. The worst performer, meanwhile, was the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ). It fell 4.4%.

So, with all that in mind, which ASX 200 shares come in as today's top performers? Keep reading to find out.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

The index's biggest gains today were posted by shares in Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF). That was despite no news having been released by the insurance broker.

Today's biggest gains were made by these shares:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX shares with exposure to copper are in the spotlight following a bullish outlook for the price of the red metal from Goldman Sachs.

With the broker tipping copper prices will hit new all-time highs in 2023 as demand exceeds supply, copper stocks could be set for some fresh tailwinds.

There are more than a dozen ASX shares exploring for and digging up copper.

Sticking to the biggest three we have:

• Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL), with a market cap of $9.2 billion
• Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), with a market cap of $2.4 billion
• Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS), with a market cap of $366 million

So, why is Goldman forecasting a surge in prices?

Why might copper prices hit new all-time highs in 2023?

As The Australian Financial Review reports, Goldman has revised its forecast for the copper market in 2023 from the previous 169,000 tonne surplus to its new expectations of a 178,000 tonne deficit.

The bullish revision, certainly to be welcomed by ASX shares producing copper, is based on both supply and demand dynamics.

On the supply side, Goldman expects reduced output from Chile, a major player in the copper space.

On the demand side, China's reopening as it moves away from its economy hampering COVID zero policies should see a significant boost from the world's top copper importer. Copper is also widely used in the construction and green energy sectors, both of which Goldman sees powering ahead in 2023.

Copper prices previously hit all-time highs on 4 March this year, at US$10,670 per tonne. ASX copper shares, as you'd expect, rallied over that period.

New record prices would help support ASX copper shares

That March 2022 record will be broken in 2023 if Goldman is correct, with the broker forecasting the red metal to hit US$11,000 per tonne next year.

Commenting on that forecast, Nicholas Snowdon, metals strategist at Goldman Sachs said (quoted by The AFR):

The sequential increase in policy targets and commitments to green transition, alongside a minimal supply response so far… have resulted in earlier and larger open-ended deficit conditions that essentially are already here, not beginning at some point in the future…

Another deficit in the market next year will take fundamental conditions to an unprecedented extreme in terms of tightness.

In longer-term good news for ASX shares hunting for and producing copper, Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to remain strong, averaging US$12,000 per tonne in 2024.

Below you can see how the big copper shares have been tracking.

The post Goldman tips record copper prices in 2023. Which ASX shares have exposure? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price had a top run in November, but can its dream run continue?

BHP shares soared 21.84% last month from $37.36 a share to $45.52 a share. At the time of writing, the BHP share price is holding its own for a 0.36% gain. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is 0.21% in the red in lunchtime trading.

Let's check what might be in store for the BHP share price.

BHP share price gains

BHP is a major ASX iron ore producer. Higher iron ore prices in November appeared to boost the BHP share price.

The iron ore price soared 27% during the month from US$81 per tonne at the start of November to US$103 a tonne at the end. Iron ore contributed 53.4% of BHP's underlying EBITDA in the 2022 financial year.

Also in November, BHP submitted an improved acquisition offer for OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) for a cash price of $28.25 a share. The OZ Minerals board advised it intends to recommend BHP's proposal.

Commenting on the deal, BHP CEO Mike Henry said at the time:

BHP's proposal represents a highly compelling offer for OZL shareholders, providing certainty at a time of macroeconomic uncertainty and market volatility, and increasing risks for the industry.

What's ahead?

Broker outlook on the BHP share price is mixed. For example, Morgans retained an add rating and placed a $47 price target on BHP's shares in November. Morgans also predicted a fully franked dividend of $2.96 a share for BHP in FY 2023. Analysts said:

We view BHP as relatively low risk given its superior diversification relative to its major global mining peers.

On the flip side, analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded BHP's share price to neutral with a price target of $42.90. Goldman was concerned about BHP's valuation and production growth versus its peers in the sector.

Meantime, Bell Direct market analyst Grady Wulff recently named BHP as a stock he would want to hold if the "market closed tomorrow for four years". He told Motley Fool:

I think for us it's BHP because it's diversifying into the battery metal space as we've just recently seen through its acquisition of OZ Minerals for $9.6 billion. 

This is really important to note, because to date, they're obviously one of the biggest miners in the world, but they hadn't diversified into the way forward, which is decarbonisation, greener future, greener energy — and now they've got that under their belt. 

Looking at the iron ore price, Citi appears optimistic on iron ore in the short term amid China's COVID policy shift. Analysts said:

Policy tailwinds are likely to remain in favour of the bulls in the short term. A perceived U-turn in China's Covid policy and the country's efforts to shore up the beleaguered property sector drove an iron ore price rally during November.

We expect further improvement in reopening sentiment. However, we maintain our view that the physical fundamentals will remain weak in the near term.

BHP share price snapshot

The BHP share price has surged 32% in the last year, while it has soared more than 26% year to date.

For perspective, the ASX 200 has slipped around 0.5% in the last year.

BHP has a market capitalisation of more than $236 billion based on the current share price.

The post Up 20% in a month, can the BHP share price continue it's run in December? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX share market revival over the past few weeks is not only great for our portfolios, but is a psychological relief.

You can stick to a long-term mindset but it is still human nature to feel depressed seeing a sea of red on the stockbroking dashboard.

Gerrish told his Market Matters newsletter that the most recent leg-up has quietened the cynics.

"There have been plenty of non-believers in equities over the last 12 to 18 months but the reality is, when we include dividends, the market is only 0.7% below its all-time high," he said.

"Where's the bear market?"

The past week, according to Gerrish, had seen a "risk-on" mindset return "with a bang" after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell made comments interpreted as dovish.

His team noticed three ASX shares in particular that had piqued their interest as investors rediscover their enthusiasm:

Take the extra shares

Copper producer Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) is almost the last man standing after rival OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) last month agreed to be absorbed into BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

Sandfire shares are thus up a stunning 47% over the past month.

Gerrish's team is still "long and bullish" on Sandfire, while noting the current stock purchase offer to existing investors.

"We still have a week to apply for the entitlement to Sandfire shares at $4.30, significantly below where the stock closed yesterday," he said.

"Hence it's highly likely that Market Matters will be taking the extra shares."

Gold, gold, gold for Australia

Gerrish's team is also keen on the gold market.

For example, the Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) share price has rocketed up close to 15% over the past few days.

"If we are correct, both Ramelius and the gold sector have further to rally."

This ASX 200 share has already rallied an amazing 65% since mid-October to close Friday at 99 cents.

Gerrish reckons there's more to come, though.

"We feel at least the next 20% looks set to be on the upside," he said.

"We think Ramelius can now rally towards the $1.13 initial resistance following Jerome Powell's dovish statement."

The post 'Long & bullish': Expert picks 2 ASX shares to buy as investors flock back to market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Ask A Fund Manager

The Motley Fool chats with the best in the industry so that you can get an insight into how the professionals think. In this edition, Bell Direct market analyst Grady Wulff picks two ASX shares that are ready to cash in on major global thematics.

The ASX share for a comfortable night's sleep

The Motley Fool: If the market closed tomorrow for four years, which stock would you want to hold?

Grady Wulff: I think for us it's BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), because it's diversifying into the battery metal space as we've just recently seen through its acquisition of Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) for $9.6 billion. 

This is really important to note, because to date, they're obviously one of the biggest miners in the world, but they hadn't diversified into the way forward, which is decarbonisation, greener future, greener energy — and now they've got that under their belt. 

They're really indestructible, because that's the way forward. The decarbonisation movement's not going anywhere, anytime soon. And the way that they needed to go, they've now gone, and they're going to capitalise on the greener movement. 

So I would keep them in the folio for four years, just because they're at the right place, right time and they're finally on board the electric train.

MF: Fantastic. People don't usually think of mining stocks to hold for that long, because commodity prices go up and down — but as you say, BHP's getting into the right areas?

GW: They are, absolutely.

Looking back

MF: Is there a move that you regret from the past? For example, a missed opportunity or buying a stock at the wrong timing or price.

GW: For us, I think investors will agree with me here, that not buying into Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) or Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) in 2022 was the biggest regret. 

Both stocks looked really strong last year and no one could have predicted the global energy crisis, but we kind of saw it coming. So not getting into that is a massive regret. Both are up 200% and 600% year to date respectively. 

Boss Energy is a uranium producer. The price of uranium is set to double by the end of next year from $50 a pound to $100 a pound. And that's when Boss Energy comes online — the end of next year, with production expected then. So they're looking really well positioned to be capitalised from the tailwinds in the price of the commodity.

And then also Whitehaven Coal — we've seen thermal coal go through the roof up 500% year to date, which is just… And it's not turning around anytime soon. The European winter's coming, Russia has cut its coal supply to Europe. So what are they going to do? They're going to use other suppliers. 

So Whitehaven Coal and Boss Energy are definitely the ones that we regret. But in saying that, investors need to stick to their long-term plans and not invest with hindsight.

MF: Is it too late to buy into either of those?

GW: Is it too late? No, it's not too late. That's literally what I got asked the other day. 

Boss Energy, they're coming online next year, so they still have, the fact that they're already soaring is a big thing, but it's not too late, no. 

Whitehaven Coal, we have a hold on at the moment, only because in September their production was down 30% because of the open-cut mines because of La Nina weather events and flooding. So we have a hold on them at the moment, but Boss Energy is a speculative buy, so that's the one we're definitely keeping an eye on.

The post Climate and energy: Analyst tips 2 ASX shares perfectly placed for global crises appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's been a big few months for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) goliath BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and its $9 billion takeover target, copper miner Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

The iron ore giant recently posted an improved acquisition bid that appeared too good for Oz Minerals to refuse. BHP now looks set to snap up the copper miner for $28.25 per share – nearly 50% higher than Oz Minerals' last undisturbed share price.

But one expert believes the ASX 200 takeover target theoretically could have fielded bids as high as $40. So, has BHP scored a bargain? Let's take a look.

Is BHP getting an ASX 200 copper bargain?

A takeover bid for Oz Minerals has been a long time coming, according to Shaw and Partners senior resource analyst Peter O'Connor. Speaking with Market Matters' James Gerrish, O'Conner said the copper miner looked like a takeover target two years ago, continuing:

BHP are late-ish to the table in the short-term. In a long-term view, they're probably still early. But I would have loved them to do this at some $20 per share.

Still, BHP could be getting an ASX 200 copper bargain. That's when you compare the acquisition currently on the table to a similar takeover being conducted by Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO).

Rio Tinto is in the throes of snapping up the entirety of Canadian-listed Turquoise Hill. It seems set to fork out $43 Canadian (around $47.17) per share for the company. O'Connor commented:

It's like real estate James, when you've got your house in your street and you see a house sell down the road… you get a print on value… It's the same with copper.

Copper [mergers and acquisitions] tells you what's happening out there. So, the Turquoise Hill bid… implies a flow through value for Oz Minerals which is closer to $40 per share.

Fortunately for BHP, there is one factor keeping its takeover cheap. The expert said:

But what this particular deal lacks is contestability… they've leveraged up the best price they can get from one bidder.  

But that might not be the case for long. The transaction still has some notable hoops to jump through.

First, BHP will conduct due diligence on the ASX 200 copper miner. If its interest continues after it flips through the books, another party might wonder why. That could spur a competing bid from an interloper, O'Connor said.

Beyond the bid, the ASX 200 copper share was tipped to boast "the best management team in the copper market globally," in O'Connor's opinion. "I think what they're buying is expertise," the expert said.

The post BHP's bargain? Expert thinks its ASX 200 takeover target could be worth 40% more appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Copper has been in the spotlight in 2022, alongside other future-facing commodities like lithium and nickel. Particularly, following BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)'s takeover bid for S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper share Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

The iron ore giant put forward a $28.25 per share "best and final" offer for its copper counterpart earlier this week. Oz Minerals has accepted the bid.

While that might be great news for those invested in the takeover target – the offer represents a 49% premium to its last undisturbed share price – it's likely disappointing for those looking to snap up long-term copper investments. Right now, the Oz Minerals share price is just 3% lower than BHP's bid.

Indeed, Shaw and Partners senior resource analyst Peter O'Connor, speaking with Market Matters' James Gerrish, recently commented:

Everyone wants to be in copper but there's so few copper equities.

Fortunately, the expert has another copper miner in their sights. Let's take a look at the other ASX 200 copper share O'Connor believes is trading at around half of its fair value.

ASX 200 copper share tipped a winner

O'Connor has dubbed Oz Minerals a "dead duck", continuing:

For all intents and purposes, Oz is no longer trading … if you want to see a 3% return, fine, but if you want to get a return better you need to look elsewhere.

Instead, he is bullish on "international, large-scale, long-life target" Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR).

The $2 billion copper miner has been on a journey over the last few years. It's been working on its Motheo project in Botswana and recently snapped up Spain's MATSA mining complex.

And just in time. Mining activities ceased at its Western Australian DeGrussa copper mine last month.

Beyond that, the ASX 200 copper miner's share price recently soared on news of a new CEO, set to take the reins in April. Additionally, Sandfire upgraded its financial year 2023 guidance in September.

Beyond Sandfire, there might be excitement among the market's smaller copper stocks in the near future. O'Connor tipped consolidation among emerging copper miners in the coming years.  

Sandfire Resources share price snapshot

The Sandfire share price is down 25% this year to date. However, it soared 44% in November.

The post BHP beat you to Oz Minerals? Buy this ASX 200 copper share instead: fundie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When a professional investor shies away from a particular sector yet admits to buying a particular stock as an exception to that rule, it's worth paying attention.

Because that means that the tailwinds behind that particular business are so compelling that the expert had to ignore his or her own dislike for that industry.

A memo from the Wilsons team this week revealed exactly such a situation:

This is my new purchase, says expert

Wilsons equity strategist Rob Crookston told clients that his focus portfolio is underweight resources.

That was especially so after OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) was removed from the portfolio last week as news hit that it accepted BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)'s takeover bid.

But guess how Crookston's team used the cash from the sale?

"We have used the proceeds from Oz Minerals to add Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) to the portfolio at 2%."

While the Wilsons team took profits from the Oz Minerals sale, the Lynas share price is down 21.3% year to date, presenting a low entry point.

Why is Lynas so attractive?

Lynas produces rare earths, which are used to make NdFeB permanent magnets.

And these magnets are seeing rising demand from clean energy producers.

"NdFeB magnets are currently used in the drive mechanism for electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines, and this is expected to drive a two to three times increase in demand by 2030," said Crookston in his memo to clients.

"It is estimated that a standard model EV will require around five times the rare earth magnets that a traditional petrol vehicle requires."

Even though the Wilson portfolio is underweight in mining, the electric vehicle narrative remains the exception.

"We are overweight EV minerals with our weighting at 8% versus the market at 4%," said Crookston.

"The positive growth outlook of rare earths and other EV minerals is in contrast to the outlook for the traditional ASX miners, such as iron ore, where we expect earnings to fall over the next two to three years."

Buying opportunity for long-term investors

Of course, like any mining stock, Lynas is vulnerable to commodity prices dropping.

Rare earths are no exception to this cyclicality, as they're also used for more traditional products like home appliances, air conditioning, elevators, and electronics.

But for Crookston's team, this merely presents an attractive entry point for a long-term investor.

"We think rare earth minerals have an inherent degree of cyclicality to broader macroeconomic conditions in the short-term (much like copper and nickel)," said Crookston.

"However, we believe the shift to renewables and EVs will be a key driver of NdPR demand over the medium-term and this period of soft demand presents an opportunity to buy into weakness."

Another ace up Lynas' sleeve is that China currently dominates 60% of the global supply of rare earths and 90% of the refining capacity.

Due to this geopolitical risk, US, European, and Australian governments are supporting domestic rare earths production.

"There is upside risk for rare earth miners that governments help fund growth projects, which would support miners' cash flows," Crookston said.

"We have already seen this for Lynas… Lynas received US$150 million for two funding grants from the US government to develop a light and heavy rare earths separation plant in the US."

The post 'Rare opportunity': Expert explains why he just added this ASX 200 share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended the week in the green. The index closed Friday's session 0.23% higher at 7,151.8 points. That marks a week-on-week fall of 0.09%.

That was despite a weak performance from the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ). It slumped 0.4% amid tumbling oil prices.

The Brent crude oil price fell 3.3% to US$89.78 a barrel overnight and the US Nymex crude oil price dumped 4.6% to trade at US$81.64 a barrel.

Fortunately, the energy sector's suffering was offset by gains across the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ), the S&P/ASX 200 Communications Index (ASX: XTJ), and the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ). They lifted 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) traded flat amid news OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) will likely accept BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)'s increased takeover bid.

All in all, seven of the ASX 200's 11 sectors closed in the green. But which share outperformed all others to close the week on a high? Keep reading to find out.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

It might come as no surprise that the stock topping the lot on Friday was OZ Minerals.

It returned to trade this morning after a two-day trading halt on news BHP upped its bid for the company to $28.25.

Today's biggest gains were made by these shares:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is rising after the ASX mining share revealed that a higher (and final) offer to buy OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) had been accepted at a price of $28.25 per share.

This higher offer represented a 13% increase to the original offer price of $25 per share. It was a 49.3% premium to the closing price on 5 August 2022, the day before the first takeover bid was announced.

BHP will now carry out due diligence and negotiate a binding takeover offer. But, the OZ Minerals board has already said it is likely to unanimously recommend the deal.

The BHP share price is currently up 0.46% to $44, while the OZ Minerals share price is soaring 3.99% to $27.35.

Benefits of the deal

BHP noted three key benefits for the ASX mining share.

The acquisition will add copper and nickel resources that are "essential to support the global megatrends of decarbonisation and electrification".

This aligns with BHP's strategy to "deliver long-term value and returns through owning a portfolio of world-class assets with exposure to highly attractive commodities that benefit from global mega-trends".

Another benefit is the "attractive synergies" that can be created because some of OZ Minerals' projects are close to BHP's. This can create "operational synergies".

BHP also pointed to "growth options". The company noted:

OZ Minerals brings attractive brownfield copper expansion projects at Prominent Hill and Carrapateena in South Australia. The West Musgrave project will add a large greenfield nickel option to BHP's Nickel West premier nickel sulphide resource position in Western Australia.

My opinion on the prospects for the BHP share price

Assuming BHP has made the numbers stack up, it seems like a smart deal to pursue. Copper and nickel are likely to be needed in large quantities in the future as electrification occurs throughout society in vehicles, power distribution, and energy generation.

The BHP share price has been volatile in recent months. It's down 6% in the past six months, yet it's up 11% over the last month.

I think things are looking promising for a number of its commodities.

I've already mentioned nickel and copper. Coal continues to generate good earnings for the company. The iron ore price could get a boost if China continues to ease its COVID-19 restrictions and keeps supporting the real estate sector. Potash, a supposedly green form of fertiliser, could be another strong earnings pillar for the business in future years.

In the short term, earnings and the BHP share price will be heavily influenced by which way resource prices are going.

But, I like the moves the business is making, and I think it's setting up ongoing long-term success in terms of cash flow generation, though volatility should be expected.

According to the estimates on Commsec, BHP is expected to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 8.6% in FY24 and 10% in FY23 (the current financial year).

I believe the ASX mining share is at good enough value to want to buy shares for the long term.

The post Are BHP shares in the buy zone following the latest OZ Minerals news? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are climbing more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

Arafura Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: ARU)

The Arafura share price has continued its sensational run and is up a further 13% to 46 cents. Investors have been buying this rare earths developer's shares this week after it announced that the Mining Management Plan for its 100% owned Nolans Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) project has been approved by the Northern Territory Government.

Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN)

The Nanosonics share price is up 2.5% to $4.63. This follows the release of the infection prevention company's annual general meeting update. Nanosonics revealed that for the four months to 31 October, total revenue came in at $52.6 million. This is up 42% compared to the prior corresponding period and up 36% in constant currency.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

The NextDC share price is up almost 3% to $9.57. Investors have also been buying this data centre operator's shares following the release of an annual general meeting update. At the meeting, NextDC reaffirmed its FY 2023 guidance for revenue growth of 17% to 22% and EBITDA growth of 12% to 17%.

OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL)

The OZ Minerals share price is up 4% to $27.38. This has been driven by news that the company has accepted an improved takeover offer from mining giant BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). The Big Australian has been granted due diligence access after increasing its non-binding offer from $25.00 per share to $28.25 per share. This "best and final" offer represents a 49.3% premium to where OZ Mineral's shares were trading prior to the initial proposal.

The post Why Arafura, Nanosonics, NextDC, and OZ Minerals shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In morning trade, the copper miner's shares are up 4% to $27.40.

Why is the OZ Minerals share price racing higher?

Investors have been bidding the OZ Minerals share price higher today after the company accepted a takeover offer from BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

After rejecting a $25.00 per share offer back in August, the OZ Minerals board has given the thumbs up to a non-binding $28.25 cash per share offer from the Big Australian.

This "best and final" offer represents a 49.3% premium to where OZ Mineral's shares were trading prior to the initial proposal.

The OZ Minerals board revealed that it has granted BHP due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend the proposal to shareholders. The latter is subject to the offer becoming binding, no superior proposal being tabled, and the independent expert's report.

Why did OZ Minerals accept this offer?

The OZ Minerals board unanimously determined that the previous proposal significantly undervalued OZ Minerals. However, the company's chair, Rebecca McGrath, notes that the billion dollars-plus increase in BHP's offer has changed this. She said:

The Revised Proposal from BHP follows a period of Board-level engagement, securing a circa $1.1 billion increase to the Initial Proposal. It is the Board's view that progressing the Revised Proposal, including providing BHP with access to due diligence, is in the best interests of OZ Minerals' shareholders and other stakeholders. The Board will continue to update shareholders as appropriate.

Why is BHP acquiring OZ Minerals?

BHP sees OZ Minerals as a great way to increase its exposure to future facing commodities. It also believe the combination of their operations will unlock value.

The mining giant's CEO, Mike Henry, commented:

BHP's proposal represents a highly compelling offer for OZL shareholders, providing certainty at a time of macroeconomic uncertainty and market volatility, and increasing risks for the industry. The combination of BHP and OZL's assets, skills and technical expertise provides a unique opportunity not available under separate ownership, with complementary resources including the Oak Dam exploration prospect and existing facilities within close proximity, backed by BHP's strong balance sheet, capital discipline and commitment to sustainable development.

The post Why is the OZ Minerals share price racing higher on Friday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.