On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a day in the red. The benchmark index fell 0.5% to 7,108.8 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Tuesday despite a solid start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 114 points or 1.6% higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.45%, the S&P 500 is up 0.65%, and the NASDAQ is down 1.35%.

Oil prices drop

Energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) could have a tough day after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 2.7% to US$74.56 barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.7% to US$80.56 a barrel. The banking collapse has rattled the market.

ASX 200 shares going ex-dividend

There are a number of ASX 200 shares that are going ex-dividend for their latest dividends this morning and could trade lower. This includes coal miner Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN), corporate travel booker Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), and media giant News Corp (ASX: NWS).

Gold price jumps

It could be a good day for gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Regis Resources Limited (down: RRL) after the gold price jumped overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 2.6% to US$1,915.2 an ounce. Traders were buying gold due to increased demand for safe haven assets.

Macquarie rated neutral

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price is almost fully valued according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Following an investor tour, the broker has retained its neutral rating with a price target of $197.53. It notes that the investment bank's shares are trading above historical multiples despite the prospect of its earnings falling in FY 2023. Goldman is forecasting a 13% decline in its earnings.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

When an ASX 200 share trades ex-dividend, it's normally a pretty big deal. For one, new investors in said company will no longer be eligible for the upcoming dividend payment if they buy the shares after the company has traded ex-dividend.

But reflecting this loss of value for new investors, an ex-dividend date also tends to result in a company's shares losing a fair chunk of value.

So in these ways, ex-dividend dates are fairly conspicuous events on the ASX 200.

Keeping that in mind, let's discuss three ASX 200 shares that will be going ex-dividend tomorrow.

3 ASX 200 shares scheduled to trade ex-dividend tomorrow

First up is ASX 200 metallurgical coal mining company Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN). Last month, Coronado announced a half-yearly dividend worth 0.5 US cents per share, fully franked. That's a decent payout to be sure, not one that pales in comparison with some of the monstrous shareholder payouts Coronado sent investors' way last year.

But new investors won't be eligible to receive this upcoming dividend come tomorrow, with the payment date now set for 5 April next month. Right now, Coronado shares have a dividend yield of 6.57%.

Next up we have News Corporation (ASX: NWS). This ASX 200 media group, famously helmed by the Murdoch family, also reported its earnings last month. Investors weren't too thrilled with the lower revenues and earnings News Corp reported. But shareholders will still be getting an increased dividend coming their way.

News Corp is scheduled to go ex-div for the unfranked 10 US cents per share payment on Tuesday, which will be a meaningful increase from the 9.4 cents per share payment that was issued last year.

After tomorrow's session, News Corp shareholders can then expect to receive this latest dividend on 12 April. News Corp shares have a dividend yield of 1.2%.

What about an ASX travel share?

Finally, let's talk about ASX 200 travel share Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD). Corporate Travel has been struggling in the dividend department for a couple of years now. After halting its dividends over half of 2020 and all of 2021, the company returned to paying dividends last year.

But the final dividend of  5 cents per share, unfranked, that was paid in September 2022 was a far cry from the fully-franked 22 cents per share investors enjoyed in 2019. Corporate Travel's next dividend will come on 14 April next month after the company trades ex-dividend tomorrow.

It will be worth 6 cents per share and also be unfranked. Corporate Travel shares have a dividend yield of 0.62% as it currently stands.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares trading ex-dividend on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel share Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) has seen plenty of ups and downs in February. But despite its share price movements – and its 20% rise in 2022 – I think it's a buy.

I believe Corporate Travel Management is one of the leaders in the world at what it does, and it has achieved a sizeable global market share.

After seeing the company's FY23 half-year result, I think it looks compelling with normalised travel conditions.

Earnings recap

In the first six months of the 2023 financial year, the total transaction value (TTV) grew by 102% to $4.2 billion, revenue increased 79% to $291.9 million, and underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped 182% to $51.3 million.

It achieved underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $22.1 million, up from a loss of $0.4 million in the prior corresponding period. Statutory NPAT was $15.7 million, up from a loss of $10 million.

The ASX 200 travel share's half-year result was a record for both TTV and revenue.

Corporate Travel Management has been through such a recovery that it decided it was strong enough to declare an interim dividend of 6 cents per share, following on from the 5 cents per share dividend at the end of FY22.

Why I think the Corporate Travel Management share price is a buy

The business spoke of "strong momentum" going into the second half of FY23 through "significant new clients transacting and activity recovery".

Corporate Travel Management gave exciting guidance. It said that FY23's underlying EBITDA is expected to be between $160 million to $180 million with an underlying profit before tax range of between $120 million to $140 million. Both of these would be record results, beating the pre-COVID FY19.

This assumes a second-half EBITDA of $109 million to $129 million which would ensure "great momentum for the expected FY24 full recovery."

Management expects a stronger EBITDA margin in the second half because of further supply chain stability, positively impacting productivity and revenue.

In terms of a trading update, the ASX 200 travel share said that travel demand "remains strong with no signs of macroeconomic factors impacting the recovery".

Europe is expected to be its largest contributor in the second half of FY23. In fact, January saw a record profit, even though it's a seasonally weak month.

In terms of the Corporate Travel Management share price valuation, Commsec numbers put the ASX 200 travel share at 18 times FY24's estimated earnings and under 16 times FY15's estimated earnings. I think that's a good price as earnings and the dividend grows.

The post This ASX 200 travel share is experiencing turbulence. I think it's a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If you're looking for ASX 200 shares to add to your portfolio, then you may want to look at the two named below that have been tipped as buys by analysts at Morgans following the release of their results.

Here's why the broker is very positive on these shares:

Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH)

The first ASX 200 share that Morgans is bullish on is Cochlear.

It is a manufacturer and distributor of cochlear implantable devices for the hearing impaired across over 30 countries. It offers three main products: Cochlear implants, Baha bone conduction implants, and Cochlear Wireless Accessories.

Morgans was pleased with Cochlear's recent half year update. It commented:

Cochlear's 1H results were better than expected, underpinned by strong sales growth in both developed and emerging markets, but OPM declined on growth initiatives. […] We see continued momentum, with FY23 guidance reaffirmed, implying a strong 2H (+25% at the mid-point), underpinned by strong fundamentals and progressively improving trading conditions.

The broker has an add rating and $250.60 price target on its shares.

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

Another ASX 200 share that Morgans is bullish on right now is corporate travel specialist Corporate Travel Management. It believes it is well-placed for growth over the medium term. This is thanks to acquisitions, its lower cost base, and technology development.

In response to its half year results, Morgans commented:

CTD's 1H23 result was a slight miss compared to implied guidance and our forecast. However, the result included additional costs so that CTD can take advantage of the expected strong recovery in the 2H23 and FY24. The midpoint of FY23 EBITDA guidance was slightly better than consensus however higher D&A and tax results in NPATA downgrades. CTD is confident of achieving a full recovery in FY24 based on significant new clients wins.

Morgans currently has an add rating and $21.90 price target on the company's shares.

The post 2 ASX 200 shares to buy post-results: Morgans appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended the week in the red, falling 0.86% on Friday to close at 7,346.8 points. That leaves it down 1.17% week-on-week.

Today's tumble followed an equally disappointing overnight session on Wall Street. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) slumped 1.3%, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) slipped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) dumped 1.8%.

Back home, it was a bloodbath across much of the market today.

Tech was hit hardest, with the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) tumbling 2.3%. Its worst performer was the Block Inc (ASX: SQ2) share price, which fell 7.8%.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) also suffered, falling 1.8% as coal producers spent a second day deep in the red after tumbling amid news of the NSW government's coal price cap policy yesterday.

There was a bright spot on the ASX 200 today, however. That was the S&P/ASX Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ), which rose 1%, driven by the Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) share price's 1.7% gain.

So, with all that in mind, which ASX 200 shares outperformed all others today? Let's take a look.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

The biggest gainer on the ASX 200 today was the QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price. It rose 7.4% to close at $14.39.

The insurer posted its full-year earnings this morning, detailing a 2.7% jump in net profit after tax (NPAT) and a 30-cent final dividend­ up 57% year-on-year.

These shares made today's biggest gains:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX 200 earnings season is well underway with brokers progressively rerating various S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares based on their FY23 half-year results.

Here we take a look at four ASX 200 shares that have received upgrades from the experts, courtesy of The Australian.

Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH)

Cochlear released a strong set of results for the six months ending 31 December. There was a 9% increase in sales revenue to a record $893 million but its underlying net profit fell 10% due to increased costs.

A strong balance sheet enabled the ASX 200 stalwart to maintain its interim dividend at $1.55 per share.

Cochlear also announced a progressive on-market buyback, starting with a $75 million program.

Cochlear reaffirmed its FY23 guidance. It expects an underlying net profit of between $290 million to $305 million, up 5% to 10% on FY22.

On the back of this news, Morgan Stanley raised its rating on Cochlear to equal weight. The broker has given Cochlear a share price target of $214.

RBC Capital rerated the stock to 'sector perform' with a $207 target. Jarden Securities cut Cochlear shares to neutral with a price target of $224.71.

The Cochlear share price is currently $225.02, down 0.63%. It is up 7.7% for the week.

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

The ASX 200 travel share fell upon the release of the company's half-year results, despite a $15.7 million profit. Corporate Travel also reported $4.2 billion in total transaction value (TTV), up 102% year over year.

The company reported $51.3 million in underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), up 182%, and a $15.7 million statutory net profit after tax (NPAT), up from a $10 million loss.

The ASX 200 share will pay an unfranked interim dividend of 6 cents per share.

Looking forward, Corporate Travel is expecting record full-year earnings with forecasted EBITDA of between $160 million and $180 million and an underlying profit before tax of between $120 million to $140 million.

Investment group CLSA raised its rating to reduce with a share price target of $16.50. The Corporate Travel Management share price is already well above this target at $18.18, up 5.37% today and up 10% for the week.

Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX)

A large real estate investment trust (REIT) within the ASX 200, Vicinity Centres announced a 24.1% bump to funds from operations (FFO) at $357.1 million. This was primarily due to a 20.5% increase in net property income to $459.6 million.

The company said there was "continued strength of retail sales leading to improved cash collections, rental growth, and higher percentage rent".

The A-REIT has revised its FY23 guidance to FFO per share of between 14 cents to 14.6 cents.

Vicinity Centres declared an interim distribution of 5.75 cents per share, up 22.3% on 1H FY22.

JPMorgan upgraded its rating on the ASX 200 share to neutral with a price target of $2.10. CLSA cut its rating to sell with a target price of $1.88.

The Vicinity Centres share price is currently $2.10, up 0.48%. It is up 6% for the week.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

Wesfarmers had a ripper result for 1H FY23, reporting a 27% jump in revenue to $22.56 billion and a 14.1% bump to NPAT at $1.38 billion. Basic earnings per share (EPS) came to $1.223 – a 14% rise.

The top 10 ASX 200 share will pay a boosted dividend of 88 cents per share, up 10% on 1H FY22.

Macquarie has raised its rating to neutral with a price target of $56.70, up 23%. This implies a potential 11% upside for Wesfarmers investors, with the share price currently $50.96, down 0.7% today.

Jarden Securities went the other way and cut its rating to neutral with a price target of $46.

The Wesfarmers share price is up 3.7% for the week.

The post 4 ASX 200 shares rerated by brokers following earnings results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bounced back with a bang on Thursday, rising 0.79% to close at 7,410.3 points.

It came amid the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest employment data, finding unemployment rose to 3.7% in January. That's likely good news for those wishing inflation to ease.  

Leading the market higher today was the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ). The sector leapt 2.7% today.

It was also a good day for S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) stocks – the tech sector rose 2.7%.

However, fans of ASX 200 energy shares were likely left disappointed. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) slumped 0.7% as coal shares weighed amid earnings from Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) and New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC).

The coal producers also responded to the NSW Government's price cap and coal reservation policy today.

So, with all that in mind, let's take a look at the 10 shares that outperformed all others on Thursday.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today's biggest gain on the ASX 200 came from Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA) shares. They surged 15% to close at $3.33 on the back of the company's first-half earnings.

These shares made today's biggest gains:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.76% late today, receiving a midday surge following news from the Bureau of Statistics that Australia's unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% in January.

It appears the rise in unemployment is being interpreted by some investors as a potential signal that interest rate rises are starting to slow the economy, which is necessary to tame inflation.

And inflation is the sole reason the Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates so rapidly.

RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe has already indicated that another two 25-basis point rate rises are almost certain in 2023. He told a Senate committee yesterday that inflation remains "way too high".

Why are ASX 200 shares going up?

Right now, any news indicating that interest rate rises are working is good for the share market. It means we're getting closer to the point when the Reserve Bank will back off and pause rates.

The bank isn't going to do that until there's enough evidence that inflation is falling. In order for inflation to fall, certain things have to happen, like lower consumer spending and business investment.

The prices of everyday goods will come down when supply bottlenecks clear and consumers rein in spending.

The share market likes today's news because inflation is bad for most businesses. Put simply, it raises their input costs. Then rising interest rates increase their debt costs.

The impact is especially seen in ASX consumer discretionary shares.

When inflation is rising, discretionary businesses face rising input costs as well as fewer customers. Most discretionary businesses can't raise their prices to offset the effect, so it's a real triple whammy.

So, it's little wonder that today's jobs data is pushing up ASX 200 consumer discretionary shares the most.

The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary (ASX: XDJ) sector is the top riser of the 11 market sectors today, up 2.81% in late afternoon trading.

Among the biggest ASX 200 movers in the sector today are Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) shares up 9.8%, Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP) shares up 5.3%, and ARB Corporation Limited (ASX: ARB) shares up 5.2%.

Following behind is the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology (ASX: XIJ) sector, up 2.4%.

ASX tech shares have also been hit hard by rising interest rates, as Australia's tech sector is pretty young and thus in growth mode, and ASX growth stocks typically have higher debt ratios than the blue chips.

Among the biggest ASX 200 tech movers are Block Inc CDI (ASX: SQ2) shares up 8.9% and Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares up 4.7%.

Economists cautious on jobs data

According to reporting in The Australian, economists are cautious about today's jobs data for a number of reasons.

One of them is that the data relates to January, which is typically a month in which people switch jobs. Those in the switch period are technically counted as unemployed at the time of the survey.

RBC Australia chief economist Su-Lin Ong said the labour market "is likely past peak strength" but will not sustainably weaken until 2H FY23.

Ong said:

We doubt if today's labour force will derail RBA hikes in the coming months.

Goldman Sachs Australia chief economist Andrew Boak says the labour market likely remains robust.

Boak said:

Overall, the weakness in the headline data bears watching, but we caution against placing too much weight in today's report.

The post Why did the ASX 200 leap higher on rising unemployment data? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

True long-term investment means buying ASX shares of businesses that have excellent business prospects, regardless of recent stock price movements.

This philosophy is, as they say, simple but not easy.

It's especially difficult for amateur and professional investors alike when the stock price is haemorrhaging in the short term.

And that's fair enough. It's only human nature not to want to put money into losing assets.

But if you can act completely rationally, those could be the best buying opportunities ever.

The team at ECP Growth Companies Fund this week named two of its S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) holdings that are exactly in that position:

Don't be distracted by the current troubles

Nothing personifies recent strugglers more than technology company Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1).

As a cash-burning growth business, the share price has taken an absolute battering.

Over the past 12 months, the stock has more than halved its value. Going back to November 2021, Megaport shares have lost an agonising 72%.

The stock price for the network-as-a-service provider again struggled in January.

ECP analysts, in a memo to clients, attributed this to a "mixed" quarterly update.

"Underlying port growth, a leading indicator for services, grew 30% quarter on quarter, though net ports only grew 2%," read the memo.

"Customers have started consolidating ports to larger ports (10GB to 100GB), giving them the ability to add more services to less ports."

This trend is painful for the immediate balance sheet, admitted the ECP fund managers, but a "net positive" in the long term.

Ultimately the business is heading towards spending less cash than it earns.

"The company has maintained their EBITDA positive run rate and expects this to extend to the full year," read the memo.

"Price increases and reduced costs also [bring] forward free cash flow positivity in our estimation."

'One of the highest quality travel companies in the world'

Although the Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) share price gained almost 25% in January, it is still down 25% over the past year.

The simple fact is that the ECP team is happy to have this one in the portfolio, regardless of what the stock price has done in recent times.

"Corporate Travel Management remains one of the highest quality travel companies in the world," read its memo.

"And [it] is well positioned to benefit from a continued recovery in underlying travel volumes and expansion into new markets and regions."

The analysts admitted there is some short-term risk, but the longer-term trajectory is heading in the right direction.

"While there is still uncertainty related to the outlook for US and European travel volumes, the market in Australia — and to a lesser [extent] Asia — is still growing strongly, with domestic travel volumes leading the way."

Other professionals generally agree.

According to CMC Markets, seven out of 11 analysts currently covering Corporate Travel recommend it as a strong buy.

The post Buy these 2 struggling ASX 200 shares now while they're cheap: fund appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

1) It's turning out to be a tough day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), down 92 points or 1.2% in early afternoon Wednesday trade.

The big four banks are doing most of the damage, coming after Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) reported first half results. More on that below.

The biggest faller in the ASX 200 is the Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) share price, down 8% to $15.86 despite guiding to a record full-year profit and saying "travel demand remains strong with no signs of macroeconomic factors impacting the recovery". 

Based on the share price reaction, the market sees things differently. Corporate Travel Management shares have plunged 38% from their 52-week high despite a very strong travel recovery. Animal spirits and speculation may have seen Corporate Travel Management shares previously get ahead of themselves. Investing can be tough. 

2) Tough crowd these stock market investors, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia share price falling 6.1% despite it reporting a 9% lift in cash profit and a hefty 20% hike in its interim dividend.

According to the Australian Financial Review, investment bank Barrenjoey "has warned analysts are likely to downgrade profit margin forecasts for CBA after its net interest margin – as a key measure of profitability – peaked in October".

"Given CBA is trading on 19x P/E, we expect the shares to be soft today."

I've been wrong on CBA shares for as long as I can remember. More recently, in August last year, with the CBA share price trading around $100, I said it looked "downright expensive".

That didn't stop CBA shares recently hitting an all time high of $111, although with the CBA share price now trading at around $102 after today's sell-off, and Barenjoey calling out the high valuation, I feel a fraction closer to the mark.

Putting the CBA results to one side, from a "Team Australia" perspective, it was heartening to see CEO Matt Comyn say consumer spend is remaining resilient, with the bank remaining optimistic that a soft landing for the Australian economy can be achieved.

3) This is in stark contrast to outspoken columnist Christopher Joye who, writing in the AFR, recently said "in their quest to crush inflation, central bankers are going to crush everything".

Joye says the number one focus of central bankers is demand destruction as they are singularly committed to creating job losses to reduce elevated wage growth.

"The bottom line is that this is bad news for everything except cash. It means lower earnings and income growth, deeper economic retrenchments, and lower valuations as the risk-free hurdle rates inexorably rise. It means the coming default cycle is probably going to be the worst we have seen since the 1991 recession, which will be terrible for anyone who has lent money to risky borrowers or invested in junk debt."

This is hardly the stuff of soft landings.

So who is right? CBA or C Joye?

I have no idea. The optimist in me struggles to think we're heading for a deep recession. Like CBA, I see consumers still spending and restaurants still busy. The unemployment rate remains hovering near half-century lows at just 3.5%.

Yet storm clouds are ahead. 

With the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest cash rate hike, which marks the ninth increase since May, households are preparing themselves for increased mortgage repayments.

Consumer confidence has plummeted, sinking to its lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic. 

The AFR reports today that TD Securities is tipping the Reserve Bank of Australia to take its terminal rate to 4.35%, a full 100 basis points – or four more lots of 25 basis point hikes – ahead of the current cash rate of 3.35%.

That just might "crush everything," including CBA's prediction of a soft landing.

4) Meanwhile, at Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), consumers are continuing to spend up, with sales at value-orientated retailers Kmart and Target up an impressive 24% for the first half of FY23. Wesfarmers also reported sales growth at Bunnings and Officeworks, albeit more modest single-digit percentage gains. 

In aggregate, the conglomerate reported profits up 14% and increased its interim fully franked dividend by 10% to 88 cents per share. 

Like others, they see the storm clouds ahead, although Wesfarmers says its "strong value credentials and low-cost operating models mean they are well positioned to meet changing customer demand as customers adjust to cost pressures".

On a day when the ASX 200 is taking it on the chin, the Wesfarmers share price is up 1% to $49.20 where it trades on around 23 times forecast earnings and on a forecast fully franked dividend yield of 3.7%. 

Like a number of high-quality ASX blue chips, Wesfarmers shares are still trading on a valuation that's appropriate for a lower interest rate environment. 

If TD Securities is right and the RBA cash rate gets as high as 4.35%, by comparison to Wesfarmers shares, cash in the bank will look very attractive. 

It's hard to see Wesfarmers shares being "crushed" but the risks might be more skewed to the downside. A re-rating to a forward P/E of 20 times implies a Wesfarmers share price of $43.50. 

5) One stock whose valuation continues to defy conventional logic is healthcare imaging software company Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME). 

The company reported solid first-half revenue growth, up 28% to $57 million, with net profit up 32% to $27 million.

Pro Medicus has been winning long-term contracts with US healthcare companies. Such a high level of recurring revenue, coupled with clear operating leverage as demonstrated by a near 50% net profit margin, would deservedly translate to a premium valuation for Pro Medicus. The company is debt-free and sits on cash reserves and other financial assets of $94.5 million.

For a company with around $100 million of annual sales, Pro Medicus sports an eye-watering market capitalisation of $6.73 billion. It trades on roughly 116 times forecast earnings. 

If Pro Medicus grew profits at 25% per year for the next five years – no mean feat – my back of the envelope calculations would have Pro Medicus shares trading at 32 times earnings, something far more palatable and arguably reasonable at that stage. 

In effect, growth for the next five years could arguably already be priced into Pro Medicus shares. 

Despite all that, I still hold the shares. It's a risk I'm willing to take for one of the highest-quality companies trading on the ASX. 

As investing legend, 99-year-old Charlie Munger has once said…

"The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily."

Pro Medicus is a core holding of the Hyperion Small Growth Companies Fund. Its stated philosophy is…

"The highest proven quality businesses with the strongest competitive advantages and organic growth opportunities produce superior shareholder returns over the long term."

Whilst I hope to hold Pro Medicus shares for many years to come, I realise I'm unlikely to see the huge gains I've seen since first buying the shares at just $1.50. 

The post ASX 200 in freefall as CBA's prediction of a soft landing might have just been torpedoed by huge interest rate call appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price is down 6% to $102.30. Although Australia's largest bank delivered a strong half year result, there are concerns that its net interest margin has peaked well ahead of expectations. Goldman Sachs wasn't expecting the peak for another year, which has caused alarm bells to ring.

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

The Corporate Travel Management share price is down 7% to $16.02. This follows the release of the corporate travel booker's half year results. Corporate Travel Management reported a 79% increase in revenue to $291.9 million and a 182% jump in underlying EBITDA to $51.3 million. As strong as this was, the latter was still short of market expectations.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

The Treasury Wine share price is down over 5% to $13.55. This morning, this wine giant posted a 1.4% increase in half year sales and a 17.2% increase in EBITS. However, once again, the market was expecting a stronger result. Treasury Wine's sales were 8% lower than consensus estimates due largely to Premium Brands weakness.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

The Westpac share price is down 5% to $22.73. Investors have been selling Westpac and other bank shares today following the release of Commonwealth Bank's results. With Australia's largest bank's net interest margin believed to have peaked ahead of expectations, investors appear concerned that this could be the same for the rest of the sector.

The post Why CBA, Corporate Travel Management, Treasury Wine, and Westpac shares are dropping appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) share price is in the red this morning on the release of the company's first-half earnings.

Right now, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel services provider are down 1.62% at $16.97.

Here are the highlights of the company's earnings report:

Corporate Travel share price falls despite 79% revenue jump

• $291.9 million of revenue – a 79% improvement on that of the prior comparable period (pcp) and a new record
• $4.2 billion of total transaction value (TTV) – more than double that of the pcp
• $51.3 million of underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) – a 182% improvement
• $15.7 million of statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) – up from a $10 million loss
• 6 cents per share unfranked interim dividend declared – the first of its kind since the onset of COVID-19
• Ended the period with $110 million of cash and no debt

What else happened last half?

The Australia and New Zealand region delivered the highest EBITDA last half, bringing in $23.5 million – a 2,511% improvement.

Despite a deluge of poor airport experiences and scheduling mishaps in the North American aviation industry last half, the company recognised $16.6 million of underlying EBITDA – a 177% jump.

The Europe region, meanwhile, delivered $17 million of underlying earnings – down 19% after a record half in financial year 2022.

Finally, its market share of Asia grew last half, with the region bringing in $3.4 million of underlying EBITDA – up from a $2.6 million loss.

The company boasts more than 97% client retention.

What did management say?

Corporate Travel managing director Jamie Pherous commented on the news driving the company's share price today, saying:

It was pleasing to deliver a record TTV and revenue result in [the first half], noting this half included an additional $8.4 million charge for excess staff capacity held to be ready for a further expected [second half] recovery.

This is a one-off investment; thankfully, we are seeing strong momentum into [this half] through significant new clients transacting and activity recovery.

What's next?

The company is gearing up to post record earnings later this year and hasn't yet noticed any potential recessionary impacts.

It forecasts its underlying EBITDA to come in between $160 million and $180 million, while its underlying profit before tax is expected to reach $120 million to $140 million.

It expects Europe to contribute $2 billion of TTV this fiscal year, while China's reopening has been tipped to indirectly drive down international airfares.  

Looking further ahead, it anticipates a full recovery in financial year 2024 on the back of client wins and retention as well as large account wins that will start trading in the current half.

Corporate Travel share price snapshot

This year has been good to the Corporate Travel share price so far.

The stock has lifted 15% since the start of 2023. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has jumped 7%.

Looking further back, however, the share has fallen 25% over the last 12 months while the index has risen 3%.

The post Corporate Travel share price tumbles despite record earnings forecast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

If that's something that you want to do, then it could be worth looking at the ASX 200 travel shares that Morgans believes are the best ones to buy right now. Here's what it is saying:

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

The first ASX 200 travel share to consider is this corporate travel booker.

Morgans has named it has a key pick in the travel sector and believes it is well-placed for growth in a post-pandemic world. Particularly given recent acquisitions and structural cost savings.

The broker also sees plenty of value in the Corporate Travel Management share price with its add rating and $25.65 price target. The broker explained:

Taking a longer term view, CTD remains as a key pick for the travel sector. We see substantial upside in its share price as the company recovers from the COVID affected travel downturn. In fact, CTD should be a materially larger business post COVID given it has made two highly accretive acquisitions during the downturn. The company has also won a lot of new business, implemented structural cost out opportunities and continued to develop its market leading technology offering which means that it will require less staff in the future. CTD is well managed and has a strong balance sheet (no debt).

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN)

Another ASX 200 travel share that could be in the buy zone is Qantas. In fact, the broker has named it as its top pick in the sector with an add rating and $8.50 price target.

Morgans believes Qantas is well-placed in the current environment and sees a lot of value in its shares at the current level. It commented:

QAN is now our preferred pick out of our travel stocks under coverage given it has the most near-term earnings momentum. Looking across travel companies globally, airlines are now in the sweet spot given demand is massively exceeding supply. QAN is trading at a material discount compared to pre-COVID multiples, despite having structurally higher earnings, a much stronger balance sheet, a better domestic market position, a higher returning International business and more diversification (stronger Loyalty/Freight earnings).

The post These are the best ASX 200 travel shares to buy right now: broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While there will inevitably be some results that disappoint the market, history shows us that there are plenty that positively surprise.

Goldman Sachs has been busy analysing the month ahead and has named 10 buy rated ASX stocks that it believes could deliver stronger than expected updates.

Which ASX stocks could surprise?

The 10 ASX stocks that Goldman Sachs is tipping to positively surprise are as follows:

• Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)
• Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)
• Data#3 Limited (ASX: DTL)
• Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)
• Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)
• Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN)
• QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE)
• Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)
• Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)
• Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Financials

In respect to QBE, the broker has a buy rating and $16.67 price target on this insurance giant's shares. Goldman believes that "COR guidance & underlying insurance margins for FY23 likely to surprise to the upside."

Judo Capital is another ASX 200 that could surprise thanks to its strong customer deposits growth. Goldman highlights that "JDO continues to grow materially above system levels on customer deposits (10x in the month of Nov-22). Overall, this would translate into an additional tailwind to NIM." The broker has a buy rating and $1.70 price target on the bank's shares.

Goldman has a buy rating and $3.45 price target on Qualitas' shares. It is tipping a strong result from the investment company thanks to "developers and asset owners look to alternative financiers."

Retail

Breville could deliver a stronger than expected half year and full year result in FY 2023. This is due to Goldman's belief that "the secular trend of coffee consumption upgrade will continue globally and that BRG will stand to benefit structurally as a leader in this upgrade." The broker has a buy rating and $23.50 price target on its shares.

Goldman believes the market is being "too negative on near-term revenue" of Temple & Webster. It has a conviction buy rating and $7.60 price target on the online furniture retailer's shares.

The broker also believes that Endeavour finished the half better than the market was expecting. It feels this "suggests that trading in 1H23 is likely to offer positive surprise vs. consensus." Goldman has a buy rating and $7.80 price target on the drinks company's shares.

Tech and telco

Goldman expects Data#3 to deliver "continued strong top-line growth from digital transformation projects delayed through COVID." The broker also expects operating leverage to flow through as the ASX tech stock's business scales. It has a buy rating and $9.20 price target on Data#3 shares.

Telco giant Telstra has been named as a positive surprise candidate. This is due to "top line momentum more than offsetting the higher costs." Goldman has a buy rating and $4.60 price target on Telstra's shares.

Travel

Goldman Sachs is feeling positive about Corporate Travel Management's prospects in the first half and full year. As a result, it has put a buy rating and $20.30 price target on this ASX travel stock. Goldman expects "upside surprise in both 1H23 earnings vs. the Street as well as outlook statements."

Finally, Qantas, which Goldman has a conviction buy rating and $8.20 price target on, has been tipped to have finished the first half strongly. It notes that "US airlines' 4Q results also reflected strength in pricing in the current environment, with American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines unit revenue averaging +19% vs. pre-covid level in the quarter."

The post 10 ASX stocks to buy before they report this earnings season: Goldman appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Two growth shares that have been given the thumbs up are listed below. Here's why it is bullish on them:

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

This corporate travel booker could be a growth share to buy according to Morgans. It is a big fan of the company and is one of its key picks in the travel sector. Particularly given its attractive valuation and recent acquisitions. The broker explained:

Taking a longer term view, CTD remains as a key pick for the travel sector. We see substantial upside in its share price as the company recovers from the COVID affected travel downturn. In fact, CTD should be a materially larger business post COVID given it has made two highly accretive acquisitions during the downturn. The company has also won a lot of new business, implemented structural cost out opportunities and continued to develop its market leading technology offering which means that it will require less staff in the future. CTD is well managed and has a strong balance sheet (no debt).

Morgans has an add rating and $25.65 price target on the company's shares.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

Another ASX growth share to consider is Jumbo. It is the online lottery ticket seller behind the OZ Lotteries brand and the Powered by Jumbo software as a service solution.

Morgans believes that Jumbo is well-placed for growth thanks to opportunities at home and abroad. It also likes its defensive qualities and low capital requirements. It commented:

We believe JIN offers excellent strategic growth opportunities, both in Australia and overseas, supported by a steadily expanding domestic market for digital lottery retailing. The business is cash generative and has a low requirement for ongoing capex. Lottery sales are resilient to economic cyclicality. They do not represent a large proportion of the personal budgets, hovering around 0.5% of household discretionary income in Australia. Although near-term sales are affected by the frequency of large jackpots, over time growth is steady.

Morgans has an add rating and $17.00 price target on its shares.

The post Morgans names the best ASX growth shares to buy in February appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Certainly businesses need to know what they're doing to flourish, that much is obvious.

But sometimes external factors can push a company's fortunes into the stratosphere.

It could be that its products and services see a huge rush in demand because of an unexpected event. It might be that the economic forces align just in the sweet spot for the business.

The company happens to be in the right place at the right time.

Is this fair? 

Plenty of otherwise excellent businesses go broke because of unexpected external factors — such as a pandemic. So you have to take the good with the bad.

The Elvest Fund this week mentioned two of its holdings that currently have the opportunity to make much hay while the sun shines:

Travel is going gangbusters

Yes, interest rates have climbed recently at a frightening speed not seen in a generation. Consumers and businesses alike are tightening their belts.

But visit any airport and you realise how much Australians want to travel at the moment, regardless of how worried they are about their mortgage repayments.

Being trapped in lockdowns and closed borders for two years will do that to you.

There are also external drivers stimulating the travel industry too.

China, after persisting with a zero-COVID policy for three years, reversed its stance late last year after rarely seen mass protests flared up among its fed-up population.

While in the short term this could cause tremendous health problems for the world's largest country, it is a major step in rejuvenating its economy back to something close to normal levels.

These are the two stocks to buy

So which are the two ASX travel shares that the Elvest team thinks are perfectly placed to ride these tailwinds?

"The release of considerable pent up demand coupled with the reopening of the Chinese economy pushed travel related businesses Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) and Helloworld Travel Ltd (ASX: HLO) higher during the month," its memo to clients read.

Indeed Corporate Travel shares are now 12.5% higher than where they started December. The Helloworld share price has climbed an impressive 21.7% over the same period.

Certainly, there are many other players that can similarly take advantage of the above tailwinds in the travel industry.

But the nature of these two businesses set them up for long-term success, read the Elvest memo.

"With leaner operating structures, healthy balance sheets and rapidly recovering demand for travel services, both businesses are well positioned to grow earnings from depressed levels in the years to come."

The post 2 ASX shares in the right place at the right time right now: Elvest appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

While this was undoubtedly strong, it wasn't as strong as some of the gains made on the index. Here's why these ASX 200 shares smashed the market:

Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA)

The Sayona Mining share price was the best performer on the ASX 200 last month with a gain of 36.8%. Investors were piling back into the lithium industry in January on the belief that prices of the battery making ingredient may stay higher for longer. In addition, Sayona announced positive progress with the restart of the North American Lithium project.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The Pilbara Minerals share price was back on form and charged 27% higher in January. As well as lithium price optimism, a strong quarterly update gave this lithium giant's shares a big boost in January. Pilbara Minerals' production, sales volumes, lithium prices, and unit costs all improved quarter on quarter. It also reported an increase in its cash balance from $1.375 billion at the end of September to $2.226 billion at the end of December.

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD)

The Corporate Travel Management share price was on form and rose 24.6% in January. This was despite there being no news out of the travel company. Though, it is worth noting that its shares were hammered in 2022 and brokers have been tipping its shares as a buy. Goldman Sachs, for example, has a buy rating and $20.30 price target on them.

ARB Corporation Limited (ASX: ARB)

The ARB share price was a strong performer and climbed 24% last month. While there was no news out of the 4×4 parts manufacturer, a solid update from Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) may have given its shares a boost. Super Retail revealed that its Supercheap Auto business delivered sales growth of 18% during the first half of FY 2023. This appears to indicate that consumers are still spending on their cars despite the cost of living crisis.

The post These were the best performing ASX 200 shares in January appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This week is shaping up to be one to forget for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). It posted its second loss of the week today, falling 0.07% to close at 7,476.7 points.

It follows a similarly poor session on Wall Street overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) slumped 0.77% on Monday's session overseas, while the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) dropped 1.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) slid 2%.

It makes sense, then, that the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) posted the day's worst performance. It fell 1.3% on Tuesday, weighed down by the Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) share price's 25% tumble on the back of the company's quarterly earnings.

Mining shares also broadly suffered today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) falling 0.8%.

But not all was dire. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) posted the biggest gain, rising 2.3%.

So, with all that in mind, let's dive into the 10 shares outperforming all others on Tuesday.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today's top-performing ASX 200 share was none other than supermarket giant Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

It rose 3.77% to close at $36.08 amid news Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to outperform, slapping it with a $36.51 price target.

These shares made today's biggest gains:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The good news is that Goldman Sachs has been looking at the sector and recently named three of the best travel shares to buy now.

According to notes, the broker believes that Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN), and Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) are the ASX 200 travel shares to buy right now.

In fact, Goldman is so positive on these three shares that it has put them on its coveted conviction list.

Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Corporate Travel Management

This morning, Goldman has reiterated its conviction buy rating with a $20.30 price target on this corporate travel specialist's shares. Ahead of its half year results, the broker commented:

For CTD, we view the recent trends in market multiples and consensus momentum as being unwarranted. We expect reiteration of FY23 guidance, recovery in North America and cash flow as three key factors to watch for which could assist re-rating of the stock this earnings season.

Qantas

Goldman recently stated its belief that the Qantas share price was undervalued at the current level given its positive outlook. It has a conviction buy rating and $8.20 price target on its shares. The broker commented:

With the market capitalization 10% above pre-COVID levels and EV (based on last reported net debt) 8% below pre-COVID, we believe the stock is not appropriately pricing QAN's improved earnings capacity. Specifically, our FY23e EPS forecast is 58% above FY19a levels with group capacity still 21% below pro-COVID levels. Even as the yields moderate (with capacity restoration) our FY24e EPS (100% of FY19 capacity) is 46% above FY19 levels.

Webjet

Finally, the broker has a conviction buy rating and $7.20 price target on Webjet's shares. While the company won't be releasing results in February, Goldman sees scope for a re-rating. It said:

WEB is an off-cycle earnings stock with the earliest company disclosed catalyst only expected in May 2023. However, we note that WEB continues to be a preferred pick for us in the travel space heading into the February results season as we expect the industry momentum and relative performance for Webjet's OTA business vs. FLT will drive continued re-rating of the stock.

The post 3 of the very best ASX 200 travel shares to buy according to Goldman Sachs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) traded in the red for just the fourth time this year today, falling 0.3% to close at 7,468.3 points.

And no prizes to those who can guess why. Market experts were shocked by the latest Australian inflation data, released late this morning.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) found the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% in the December quarter and  7.8% over the course of 2022. Those figures were notably higher than consensus forecasts of 1.6% and 7.6%, respectively.

The likelihood the Reserve Bank of Australia could begin easing rates next month likely diminished on the findings, thereby disappointing investors.

On a more positive note, the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) outperformed despite the inflation read today. It gained 0.3%.

Interestingly, the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) also gained, rising 0.4%, while the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) led the market, lifting 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the rates-sensitive S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) fell 1.2% and the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) dropped 1.2%.

But enough of that. Let's take a look at the 10 shares that posted the ASX 200's biggest gains on Wednesday.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today's top performing share on the index was News Corp (ASX: NWS).

The stock jumped 6% to close at $29.93 after the company revealed it won't be merging with Fox Corporation and confirmed it's in talks to sell its Move, Inc business.

These shares made today's biggest gains:

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.