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        <title>Alexandra Cain, Author at The Motley Fool Australia</title>
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        <description>Since 1993, millions of investors have trusted The Motley Fool for simple, down-to-earth investing research.</description>
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	<title>Alexandra Cain, Author at The Motley Fool Australia</title>
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                                <title>In a post-COVID world, could Australia be the next superpower?</title>
                <link>https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/12/in-a-post-covid-world-could-australia-be-the-next-superpower/</link>
                                <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2020 22:47:32 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alexandra Cain]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Share Market News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[⏸️ Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trending]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.fool.com.au/?p=205402</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Australia is in a good place in terms of the way we’re weathering the COVID-19 crisis. There may be an opportunity for Australia to assume a leadership position in the new global order.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/12/in-a-post-covid-world-could-australia-be-the-next-superpower/">In a post-COVID world, could Australia be the next superpower?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1200" height="675" src="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/World-superpower-16.9-1200x675.jpg" class="attachment-full size-full wp-post-image" alt="Best asx small cap stock global opportunity" style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;" /><p>As <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/category/coronavirus-news/">coronavirus</a> shutdowns ease, the <strong>S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index</strong> (XTO) is trading in a range between about 4,300 and 4,540 points. Investors think we're at the start of the recovery, but there are still many risks ahead.</p>
<p>Social distancing will be in place for a while. This is going to have an impact on hospitality, discretionary retail, shopping centres and entertainment stocks. The issue is whether coronavirus impacts are fully priced into the bourse. Few companies have given guidance so far, so questions remain about whether share prices really reflect how results will play out this earnings season.</p>
<p>The relative strength index (RSI) indicates the ASX 100 swung from overbought to over-sold during February. It then reverted to the mean, where it's been since early April, suggesting fair value is around 4,500 points. But analysts are much more bearish. In a note to clients, Elliot Management's Paul Singer speculated the value of the ASX 100 could still halve, which indicates the bottom may actually be around 2,967 points.</p>
<p>Longer term, Australia is in a good place relative to many countries, in terms of the way we're weathering the COVID-19 crisis. There may be an opportunity for Australia to assume a leadership position in the new global order by hunkering down and re-starting tech-led manufacturing. </p>
<h2>Looking towards earnings season</h2>
<p>Some analysts say the market has become much more rational after panic selling in the first month of the crisis. Even though volatility has reduced, there are still clear winners and losers in the current climate.</p>
<p>Financials, resources and health care make up almost 60% of the <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/latest-asx-200-chart-price-news/"><strong>S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</strong></a> (ASX: XJO) and the market's direction is largely determined by the vagaries of these sectors. The issue is whether the value of stocks in these industries already account for risks, such as low interest rates and bad debts (notwithstanding the pandemic is largely good news for health stocks). Resources businesses have long-term contracts in place. So any disruption to Australia's relationship with China, which relies on our iron ore in particular, won't affect miners in the immediate term.</p>
<p>Alex Jamieson from AJ Financial Planning says the market should head higher at the back end of this year:</p>
<p>"We have an 18-month price target of 6,000 on the ASX 200. But, as with any recovery, there will be pullbacks along the way. It wouldn't trouble us if the ASX 200 did touch 4,900 points. It's a normal part of the market process."</p>
<p>This dip would also be a buying opportunity.</p>
<p>Other commentators note the ASX could perform better than overseas markets, especially the US.</p>
<p>"I'm very bearish on the US economy and relatively bullish on the Australian economy," says Rivkin Securities' Shannon Rivkin. Rivkin is avoiding local tourism companies that rely on international travel and companies exposed to the US economy.</p>
<p>"The government has likely prevented a longer shutdown and greater economic pain through its health policies and stimulus. But we're avoiding banks and property stocks simply because the downside is high if things remain depressed," says Rivkin.</p>
<p>"REA Group and Carsales have low gearing and can withstand the pain for a while. We're also [targeting] names exposed to recurring revenues that haven't seen customers desert them," he adds.</p>
<p>He says artificial intelligence leader <strong>Appen Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-apx/">ASX: APX</a>), investment platforms <strong>Hub24 Ltd </strong>(<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-hub/">ASX: HUB</a>) and <strong>Netwealth Group Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-nwl/">ASX: NWL</a>) and enterprise software firms as <strong>TechnologyOne Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-tne/">ASX: TNE</a>) are in this category.</p>
<p>He's looking for well-priced opportunities and targeting companies that have had painful revenue hits but are likely to return to normal relatively quickly. They also need balance sheet strength to survive. <strong>Crown Resorts Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-cwn/">ASX: CWN</a>), <strong>Ramsay Health Care Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-rhc/">ASX: RHC</a>) and <strong>Transurban Group</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-tcl/">ASX: TCL</a>) are in his sights.</p>
<h2>Raising the bar</h2>
<p>Across the stock exchange, companies have taken the opportunity to raise capital to ensure they have the balance sheet strength. PAC Capital's Clayton Larcombe says these are good opportunities for investors, but he emphasises the importance of choosing wisely.</p>
<p>"We used the NAB capital raise to increase weighting to banks. But we've moved away from property as we anticipate upcoming headwinds, with the exception of storage and warehousing assets which are likely to be in demand. We see strong upside to REITs with these investments in their portfolios," says Larcombe</p>
<p>Larcombe has also just bought into <strong>National Storage REIT</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-nsr/">ASX: NSR</a>)'s capital raise because it offers exposure to sub sectors like self-storage for residential and commercial customers. This service will be in demand as businesses close or store stock while shut, and people move out of rental properties.</p>
<p>"The market clearly agrees. The book was filled in hours and I expect strong upside. But we've sold Lendlease shares. It's a great company with quality assets. But there's value elsewhere," says Larcombe.</p>
<h2>Messy earnings season</h2>
<p>​Earnings season is going to be a disaster for many businesses, especially those in retail, most commercial property firms and hospitality and entertainment outfits. We've already seen the bank bloodbath, with dividends slashed or completely annihilated.</p>
<p>But it's not all bad news. Expect earnings to hold up for tech companies like data centre and cloud storage group <strong>NextDC Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-nxt/">ASX: NXT</a>) and <strong>Goodman Group </strong>(<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-gmg/">ASX: GMG</a>), which has warehousing and logistics clients such as Amazon, resilient earnings and a growth outlook. </p>
<p>"In resources, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, OZ Minerals and Independence Group will do ok. Consumer staples like Woolworths, consumer discretionary like JB Hi-Fi and health care stocks like CSL and ResMed will also hold up. Telecommunications services firms like Telstra, commercial and professional services like Brambles and software and services companies like Altium are likely to have ok earnings," says Ausbil Investment Management's Paul Xiradis.</p>
<h2>Ready for a rebound</h2>
<p>Turning to the outlook for the rest of the year, Xiradis has his bet on a U-shaped recovery: "[b]ut what this looks like across the equity market differs by sector and company. Balance sheet strength trumps everything."</p>
<p>Like Rivkin, Xiradis is looking for quality companies whose earnings have come undone from COVID-19 restrictions but that are due for a recovery. He also likes Ramsay Health Care and Transurban, in addition to <strong>Sonic Healthcare Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-shl/">ASX: SHL</a>), <strong>SEEK Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-sek/">ASX: SEK</a>), <strong>Afterpay Ltd</strong> (ASX: APT) and <strong>Qantas Airways Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-qan/">ASX: QAN</a>).</p>
<p>"We expect to see V-shaped rebounds in their earnings as customers return with gusto as lockdowns are eased. Lendlease, export and building products steel producer BlueScope Steel and natural gas company Santos, which has been temporarily impacted by the fall in oil prices, are worth considering," says Xiradis.</p>
<h2>Repositioning the nation</h2>
<p>Looking long-term, the pandemic has given the world a massive shake-down, which could see a new world order emerge. Australia's response to the virus has been among the best in the world, which could see us move up the world order. But commentators stop short of suggesting we could enter superpower ranks.</p>
<p>Australia makes up between 1% and 2% of the global market and less than 1% of the global population. So it's unlikely we'll ever become a superpower in the traditional sense, but segments of our technology sector will continue to do well, led by success stories such as <strong>Altium Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-alu/">ASX: ALU</a>). </p>
<p>"These businesses will continue to disrupt. But the local tech sector is unlikely to rival Silicon Valley or China's equivalent Shenzhen in size or scale," says Jamieson. Healthcare market darlings like <strong>CSL Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-csl/">ASX: CSL</a>), <strong>ResMed Inc</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-rmd/">ASX: RMD</a>) and <strong>Cochlear Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-coh/">ASX: COH</a>)will also continue to do well.  </p>
<p>"Our country will display pockets of brilliance in a few listed companies, similar to any high education, small population nation," Jamieson argues.</p>
<p>Larcombe notes a superpower is defined as having the capacity to project power and influence anywhere in the world through economic, military and cultural means. He adds:</p>
<p>"We can't compete with the US or China. But we can cultivate strategic industries to build our influence. IT and advanced manufacturing could be big winners for Australia." </p>
<p>He cites CSIRO's view that over the next 20 years Australia's manufacturing industry should evolve into a highly integrated, export-focused ecosystem. "In this space we like Appen. We see favourable prospects for Weebit Nano, a leader in next gen computer memory technology."</p>
<p>The proposed Central Station Tech Hub, Sydney's version of Silicon Valley, will underpin a shifting policy focus towards the tech sector. Says Larcombe:</p>
<p>"A stronger tech sector is strategically vital in projecting military might. Warfare will increasingly be played out online and protection from foreign cyber interference will play a key part in national defence strategies."</p>
<p>A local name in the space is <strong>Senetas Corporation Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-sen/">ASX: SEN</a>), which provides encryption technology. <strong>Icetana Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-ice/">ASX: ICE</a>), which uses machine learning to deliver analytics solutions for large scale surveillance networks, should also benefit in this environment.</p>
<p>So while Australia may not be the next US or China, there's plenty of potential for lesser-known and well known listed businesses to generate returns as the world navigates through the pandemic and beyond.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/12/in-a-post-covid-world-could-australia-be-the-next-superpower/">In a post-COVID world, could Australia be the next superpower?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
<p><strong>More reading</strong></p><ul><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/testing-again/'>Testing again</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test-2/'>Aaron Test 2</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test/'>Aaron Test</a></li></ul><p><em>Motley Fool contributor Alexandra Cain owns shares of Woolworths Group Ltd, BHP Group Ltd and National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Cochlear Ltd., CSL Ltd., Hub24 Ltd, and Netwealth. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO, Altium, Appen Ltd, and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear Ltd., Hub24 Ltd, Ramsay Health Care Limited, ResMed Inc., SEEK Limited, and Sonic Healthcare Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/what-does-it-mean-to-be-motley/">diverse range of insights</a> makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/fool-com-au-disclosure-policy/">disclosure policy</a>. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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                                <title>Oil panic produces opportunities for ASX investors</title>
                <link>https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/oil-panic-produces-opportunities-for-asx-investors/</link>
                                <pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2020 05:28:58 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alexandra Cain]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Resources Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Share Market News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trending]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://fool.com.au/?p=204492</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>We speak to 3 experts about the recent oil price volatility and what this might mean for investors in ASX oil shares like Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL).</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/oil-panic-produces-opportunities-for-asx-investors/">Oil panic produces opportunities for ASX investors</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<img decoding="async" width="1200" height="675" src="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/oil-price-16.9-1200x675.jpg" class="attachment-full size-full wp-post-image" alt="ASX Energy shares OPEC+" style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;" /><p>The ASX oil shares represent good value after the price of <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/2020/04/23/after-negative-oil-prices-are-asx-oil-shares-a-buy-today/">black gold fell into negative territory</a>. There's now the potential for industry consolidation, with suggestions <strong>Oil Search Limited</strong> (ASX: OSH) may be a tasty morsel for <strong>Woodside Petroleum Limited</strong> (ASX: WPL). </p>
<p>The oil price has been extremely volatile due to a number of issues. These include the disruptions from <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/category/coronavirus-news/">COVID-19</a>, Middle East tensions and the supply/demand war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.</p>
<p>"Although the crude oil price has continued to springboard off its lows, it is likely to remain under selling pressure in the weeks and months ahead until demand rises by 30%," says Bell Direct market analyst Jessica Amir.</p>
<p>Amir notes WTI gained 23% in 2 days to US$16.94 as energy producers halted drilling at a number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, with active Canadian rigs now at record lows.</p>
<p>"That's settling investor concerns for now. But the oil price is likely to remain under pressure until production cuts kick in and demand bounces back," says Amir.</p>
<p>Production cuts are not enough to offset the demand glut and there are few underlying fundamentals to push the price higher. Bell Potter's analysis suggests the Brent price could see another sell-off and re-test the US$16.00 level in coming weeks and months.</p>
<p>UBS Equities' global head of mining Glyn Lawcock says the future price of oil is the billion-dollar question:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most producers are struggling to make cash on an all-in basis. When most companies talk about cash costs they refer to wellhead costs, which is the cost to get it out of the ground. But there are many other costs associated with oil a lot of companies choose not to disclose.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Most Australian and global producers have cash costs in the vicinity of US$10 a barrel plus or minus of US$2. But this doesn't account for capital they need to spend to sustain their businesses, exploration spend to keep leases on foot, head office costs, interest costs and repayment of debt facilities. So a more accurate cost is around US$28 to US$40 a barrel or more.</p>
<p>The cash deficit predates COVID-19, says Merlon Capital Partners' portfolio manager Ben Goodwin:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Oil companies might have been generating accounting earnings but even before the coronavirus disruption roughly half US shale producers weren't generating cash. They needed capital to continue to drill new wells to generate growth. That capital was drying up and in the US active drill rates were down by 25% even before the virus. Our original schematic was loss-making US producers, which had been responsible for the majority of supply growth of oil in the last 10 years, would have reduced production to support higher oil prices.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Goodwin says demand for oil is down by a third to 70 million barrels a day since the virus crisis, which has produced significant excess supply. This is likely to exacerbate US shale producers' exit from the market. He adds:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[D]emand should recover as coronavirus impacts exit the market. Data from China is opaque, but it seems its economy is back to maybe 80% of pre virus levels. You wouldn't want to use that as a template for the rest of the world. But there are examples of economies looking at exit as opposed to lockdown strategy. Second virus waves aside, demand could start to recover. There's a lot of alphabet talk. You wouldn't expect a V-shaped recovery; maybe a U-shaped recovery. But demand could get back to maybe 95% of previous levels on as a normalised basis.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There are many levers at play in the oil market. Post COVID-19, people might fly less or drive more to avoid public transport. Workers coming out of unemployment might avoid buying electric vehicles and instead buy cheap gas guzzlers, which would be good for oil.</p>
<p>"We don't really know what the wash up will be. But if this serves to accelerate US shale exiting at a faster rate that could be a positive for all prices on a medium to longer term basis," says Goodwin.</p>
<p>Another variable is the potential for US President Trump to step in and support US shale oil producers.</p>
<p>"US oil and gas producers are 5% of total employment so this would save jobs for him. That's a risk at the commodity level," says Goodwin.</p>
<p>Lawcock argues the current oil price is untenable, saying "there's a lot to think about with oil. Sometimes industries and countries surprise you in how long they're prepared to run cash negative before making decisions to curtail supply. So we'll see."</p>
<h2>All about balance sheets</h2>
<p>What this means is oil producers need balance sheets with incredible strength. Aussie oil companies have different resilience levels in this regard.</p>
<p>Woodside is in the best position, having completed a substantial capital raising in 2018 for its Scarborough, Pluto Train 2 and Browse projects.</p>
<p>"Now those projects have continued to slip, they find themselves in the strongest position," says Lawcock.</p>
<p>Woodside also has balance sheet flexibility and a low cost core asset, as well as a requirement to replace declining production in the Northwest shelf facility.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Goodwin notes Scarborough and Browse are not tier one projects:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They are more expensive because they are dry gas projects or more remote and you need to spend a lot on the pipeline to get the resource back to the coast. Although the liquefaction plant in Karratha is a positive versus a greenfield project that requires a liquefaction facility as well as the upstream gas drilling and rigs and pipelines.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Oil Search is at the other end of the spectrum.</p>
<p>"It's already put its hand up and admitted it mis-funded the Alaska project to some degree. The market's view is, while still a good project, it should have been equity not debt funded because it isn't cash generating," says Lawcock.</p>
<p>Oil Search has yet to raise funds for its PNG project, and probably never assumed it would need to in such a dislocated market.</p>
<p>Goodwin says Woodside may be looking at good projects or assets from other producers such as Oil Search, which has seen its share price sold off a lot more than Woodside.</p>
<p>"Buying Oil Search would be a way of extending Woodside's production profile, as opposed to spending on their own projects. I think they would make a better return doing that, notwithstanding they would have to pay a takeover premium," says Goodwin.</p>
<h2>Foolish takeaway</h2>
<p>For investors, the question is which stock to get into, Woodside or Oil Search, and at what price. Both stocks could come down should the oil price drop again, which might be a good entry point, assuming an offer is not forthcoming before then.                                                                                           </p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/oil-panic-produces-opportunities-for-asx-investors/">Oil panic produces opportunities for ASX investors</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
<p><strong>More reading</strong></p><ul><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/testing-again/'>Testing again</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test-2/'>Aaron Test 2</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test/'>Aaron Test</a></li></ul><p><em>Motley Fool contributor Alexandra Cain has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/what-does-it-mean-to-be-motley/">diverse range of insights</a> makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/fool-com-au-disclosure-policy/">disclosure policy</a>. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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                                <title>5 quality ASX shares to buy in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity</title>
                <link>https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/5-quality-asx-shares-to-buy-in-this-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity/</link>
                                <pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2020 02:05:43 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alexandra Cain]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Best Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coronavirus News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[editor's choice]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://fool.com.au/?p=203202</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>It’s a fire sale of equities, with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy ASX shares at crazy prices. Here are 5 quality ASX shares to consider adding to your portfolio right now.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/5-quality-asx-shares-to-buy-in-this-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity/">5 quality ASX shares to buy in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<img decoding="async" width="634" height="173" src="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/TMF_HoldingCo_Logo_Primary_Magenta_RoyalPurple.svg" class="attachment-full size-full wp-post-image" alt="a woman" style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;" /><p>It's a fire sale of equities, with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy blue-chip shares at crazy prices. Here are 5 quality ASX shares investors could consider adding to their portfolio right now.</p>
<h2>Gotta love Computershare's sticky customers and loyal clients</h2>
<p><strong>Computershare Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-cpu/">ASX: CPU</a>) is the largest share registry business in the world. It delivers global exposure to investors, underpinned by sticky customers, thanks to the cost and hassle involved in switching providers if you're a listed business.</p>
<p>"Cost cutting and its growing mortgage services division will support growth over the long term," says Tyson Jonas, a senior financial adviser with Jonas Wealth.</p>
<p>Computershare is a capital-light business with strong, defensive recurring earnings.</p>
<p>"Its core registry services division has a 99 per cent client retention rate. Average client tenure is 20 years, making this business very appealing," Jonas adds.</p>
<p><em>Computershare shares could be for you if: you want exposure to a services business that will likely benefit from the post-<a href="https://www.fool.com.au/category/coronavirus-news/">coronavirus</a> share market recovery.</em></p>
<h2>All about Seek: other online jobs boards can go home</h2>
<p><strong>SEEK Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-sek/">ASX: SEK</a>) is the clear leader in the Australian jobs advertising space. The company captures 90% of all the time job seekers spend online looking for a position.</p>
<p>The business has invested in leading jobs' boards in fast-growing emerging markets like Brazil, China and Mexico. These countries also have rising internet penetration.</p>
<p>The performance of SEEK's education division is typically counter-cyclical to its jobs business. This part of the business will also help job seekers upskill while people are in lockdown.</p>
<p>"COVID-19 will probably impact short-term earnings. But there's the potential for impressive growth over the long term," says Jonas.</p>
<p><em>SEEK shares could be for you if: you want to diversify your portfolio by accessing a high-growth company with diverse international revenue sources.</em></p>
<h2>Market darling Cochlear should continue to wow</h2>
<p>Hearing aid company <strong>Cochlear Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-coh/">ASX: COH</a>) has around 60% market share and is a leader in its field. It's geographically diversified with exposure to the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific, which will help support it through the COVID-19 recovery phase.</p>
<p>For the most part, Cochlear's dividend has increased each year, targeting a dividend payout ratio of around 70% of net profit. "We see no reason for this to change once the economy normalises mid next year," says AJ Financial Planning founder Alex Jamieson.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fool.com.au/2020/03/26/cochlear-share-price-edges-lower-on-successful-completion-of-capital-raise/">Cochlear recently raised $880 million through an institutional placement</a> and a further $50 million through a share purchase plan. It also has a recently-approved $150 million bank facility.</p>
<p>"This will support it to weather the slowdown and also handle legacy legal disputes on a US patent infringement. This company is well capitalised to handle what lies ahead with the virus uncertainty," he adds.</p>
<p>Cochlear will benefit from the resumption of elective surgeries post-coronavirus. The aging baby boomer population globally should also deliver a bottomless pit of work for decades to come.</p>
<p><em>Cochlear shares could be for you if: you want exposure to the aging population and a global market leader in the health space.</em></p>
<h2>Transurban: a dividend yield play with upside growth </h2>
<p>Toll road operator <strong>Transurban Group</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-tcl/">ASX: TCL</a>) owns major assets in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, plus infrastructure in Montreal, Canada and Washington, in the US.</p>
<p>Toll road traffic has dropped by up to 70% in some areas. But numbers are expected to rise steadily to pre-COVID-19 levels by mid next year. The company recently raised $815 million of non-recourse debt followed by a further facility of $1.3 billion.</p>
<p>"This should help over this period of disruption," says Jamieson, who says there's the potential for an ongoing yield of 4.73% based on today's share price. </p>
<p>Transurban has lifted its dividend by between 7% and 10% or more every year since 2010. "Notwithstanding a short-term disruption, we expect the dividend to go back to usual on normalising traffic numbers," he says.</p>
<p>The business is also likely to benefit as nervous travellers return to travelling in their cars before they feel safe taking public transport. The <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/2020/04/21/why-the-wti-crude-oil-price-crashed-to-minus-us40-32-a-barrel/">low oil price</a> will also provide support before excess stockpiles abate and the market recovers.</p>
<p>Says Jamieson: "Ongoing congestion pressures with population growth in Australia will give this infrastructure provider an endless supply of work, with many new roads projects on the cards. This is one opportunity you don't want to drive past without taking a second look."</p>
<p><em>Transurban shares could be for you if: you want to ride the forthcoming infrastructure boom and benefit from the low oil price.</em></p>
<h2>Challenger: addressing longevity risk with annuities</h2>
<p><strong>Challenger Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-cgf/">ASX: CGF</a>) is the market leader in annuities in Australia and the aging population is likely to support the business well into the future. It also distributes annuities in Japan, which has a similar demographic to the local market.</p>
<p>"Both countries need products like annuities to help mitigate longevity risk," says Jonas.</p>
<p>The company is well established across the local wealth management space, with good relationships with financial advisers, dealer groups and investment platforms. The Australian federal government's Retirement Income Framework should also create demand for annuities in retirees' portfolios.</p>
<p><em>Challenger shares could be for you if: you believe Aussie and Japanese retirees' appetites for annuities products will only grow as the population ages.</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/05/01/5-quality-asx-shares-to-buy-in-this-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity/">5 quality ASX shares to buy in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
<p><strong>More reading</strong></p><ul><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/testing-again/'>Testing again</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test-2/'>Aaron Test 2</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test/'>Aaron Test</a></li></ul><p><em>Motley Fool contributor Alexandra Cain has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Cochlear Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Challenger Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear Ltd. and SEEK Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/what-does-it-mean-to-be-motley/">diverse range of insights</a> makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/fool-com-au-disclosure-policy/">disclosure policy</a>. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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                                <title>Not scared by bears: Why the ASX share market could be poised to skyrocket</title>
                <link>https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/04/18/not-scared-by-bears-why-the-asx-share-market-could-be-poised-to-skyrocket/</link>
                                <pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2020 23:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Alexandra Cain]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[⏸️ TMF AMP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trending]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://fool.com.au/?p=202674</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>The S&#038;P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 20% from its March lows, pulling it out of bear territory (for now). Here's what 3 industry experts have to say about how to invest in a volatile market. </p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/04/18/not-scared-by-bears-why-the-asx-share-market-could-be-poised-to-skyrocket/">Not scared by bears: Why the ASX share market could be poised to skyrocket</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="634" height="173" src="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/TMF_HoldingCo_Logo_Primary_Magenta_RoyalPurple.svg" class="attachment-full size-full wp-post-image" alt="a woman" style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;" /><p>The <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/latest-asx-200-chart-price-news/"><strong>S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</strong></a> (ASX: XJO) has gained more than 20% after current <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/what-is-a-bear-market/">bear market</a> lows were reached on 23 March. This turnaround is thanks in part to the slowdown in new <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/category/coronavirus-news/">COVID-19</a> cases, China slowly clawing its way out of the corona slump, and fund managers increasing their stake in undervalued companies like <strong>Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-flt/">ASX: FLT</a>).</p>
<p>But while markets appear bullish, the fun ain't over.</p>
<p>Here's what 3 industry experts have to say about what could be in store for the ASX going forward, and how to approach investing in a volatile market. </p>
<h2>Bottoms up</h2>
<p>Wise investors understand we won't know we've hit the bottom of the market until we see it in the rear view mirror.</p>
<p>"We're not out of the woods. Volatility will drop when new COVID-19 cases stop, business returns to normal and retail, hospitality, tourism, sport and property services are up and running," says Bell Direct market analyst Jessica Amir, who recommends focusing on companies to buy and hold.</p>
<p>"This is an opportunity to set yourself up with a diversified investment portfolio," says Amir.</p>
<p>Pat Garrett, CEO and co-founder of robo adviser Six Park, expects tensions between the medical and corporate worlds will drive markets in the near term.</p>
<p>"The former sees major benefits in leaving lockdown measures in place and the latter wants the fastest route back to business as usual. Where action and policy land across this spectrum is likely to be the largest driver of share markets.</p>
<p>"So, we remain in a situation where sentiment not data is driving the market. Investors need to know what policies will be adopted and what containment data says about COVID-19's impact, which could take months to play out. We also need to understand potential downsides of US economic interventions. Expect more wild swings in coming weeks as it's going to take time to get stability on how to interpret data."</p>
<p>Garrett notes bear market rallies can make investors feel the bottom has come and gone when it hasn't.</p>
<p>"Rebounds, like falls, tend to be highly unpredictable. Market stability, even if that means new lows, will start to return when there is sufficient clarity to assess whether a short-term recession or a long-term depression is the most likely outcome. There simply isn't enough data yet to make that assessment. Typically, the bottom is when you least expect it."</p>
<p>Integral Private Wealth principal adviser and director Luke Ranson points out markets are reacting to government and central bank measures instead of fundamental data.</p>
<p>"In the US, the S&amp;P500 is up 1.4% despite 6.6 million Americans applying for unemployment benefits. Locally, state and federal government announcements and the RBA's capital injections have driven market movements."</p>
<p>Ranson expects the prime minister's announcement about relaxing current restrictions and businesses reopening to provide near-term confidence, however cautions that "there's a lot of uncertainty, so don't expect a smooth recovery." </p>
<p>But, with the ASX falling 36.5% between its February highs and end of March, it doesn't really matter if we've hit the bottom – there are a number of good buying opportunities right now.</p>
<p>"Some companies already represent good value. But steer clear of sectors that have been directly affected by COVID-19 such as accommodation and aviation. Instead, look for solid businesses with strong balance sheets," says Ranson.</p>
<h2>Reporting season outlook</h2>
<p>The market comprises 2 types of companies at the moment: those that have totally abandoned earnings forecasts and those whose forecasts have been maintained or improved.</p>
<p>"It's tough times for tourism companies and retailers without a strong online presence. But consumer staples, telcos, utilities and healthcare companies are doing well. Landlords and industrial companies that service those markets like Amcor and Brambles are also in this category," says Amir.</p>
<p>We're just starting to see US companies' earnings results, with <strong>Johnson &amp; Johnson</strong> beating its forecast and <strong>JP Morgan</strong> and <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> disappointing the market. This gives local investors some insights into how the Aussie reporting season will play out in August.</p>
<p>Garrett says the global economy's frozen moment has in part already been priced into markets.</p>
<p>"Though the recent rebound suggests investors feel COVID-19's impact will be less than expected. But listen closely to what companies have to say about future guidance and expectations. The broader markets could test new lows if corporate guidance is fuzzy or alarming," he says.</p>
<p>Ranson comments that while there's a danger in investors expecting better results, as this could drive the next leg lower, "the amount of pessimism in the market may mean if companies announce stronger than expected results, it may provide a boost."</p>
<p>Results from the big four banks and other larger listed companies such as <strong>BHP Group Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-bhp/">ASX: BHP</a>), <strong>Rio Tinto Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-rio/">ASX: RIO</a>), <strong>Woolworths Group Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-wow/">ASX: WOW</a>) and <strong>Wesfarmers Ltd</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-wes/">ASX: WES</a>) will have a big impact.</p>
<p>"Globally, I expect plenty of announcements about how companies are adapting their operating models to navigate this period. This might include suspending or cutting dividends or divesting certain parts of a business," says Ranson.</p>
<p>The <strong>Bank of Queensland Limited</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-boq/">ASX: BOQ</a>), for example, announced last week that it wouldn't be paying its first-half dividend at its half-yearly results announcement. The bank's share price fell 5% on the news, ending the trading day 2.14% lower.</p>
<p>Says Ranson: "No matter how the upcoming reporting season goes, the current environment serves as a timely reminder to be diligent and have a strategy for building long-term wealth that withstands periods of volatility."</p>
<h2>The cash risk</h2>
<p>Investors require robust nerves to get into the market at the moment. But if you're not in the market now, you can't capitalise on gains as it recovers.</p>
<p>"That doesn't mean you have to go all-in," says Ranson. "You can slowly increase your exposure to the market over the coming months. Those with a more conservative risk appetite can achieve real growth in their wealth by being exposed to companies with strong balance sheets and revenue streams that are less affected by COVID-19."</p>
<p>Garrett notes being in cash also means not earning any income, even if dividends are reduced due to deteriorated economic conditions. "Reinvesting any dividends you do earn while share prices are depressed is a powerful way to ride out market downturns as it's a forced mechanism to buy low," he says.</p>
<p>Sitting on cash waiting for things to get better also typically means investors end up missing the early stage of the broader market recovery, which tends to be unpredictable and fast. "Whether that recovery is near term or long term is still incredibly hard to predict given the lack of data needed to make such an assessment," adds Garrett.</p>
<p>Says Amir: "It's important for investors not to try to time the market. Reflecting on the last bear market in 2008, 50% was lost from late 2007 to early 2009. If you sold out during that time, you missed out on a 59% rebound over the next year. Investors will return to the share market as there's no alternative that offers such attractive returns. It's difficult to predict when the market will fully recover, but we know it will happen."</p>
<h2>Foolish takeaway</h2>
<p>Here are 4 key takeaways for ASX investors:</p>
<ul>
<li>Don't wait until it's too late and the market has turned to take advantage of a once-in-a-decade share market rout.</li>
<li>Now's the time to add really cheap <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/2020/04/17/3-blockbuster-asx-blue-chip-shares-to-buy/">blue chip stocks</a> to your portfolio – or create a diversified basket of shares – while the market is on sale.</li>
<li>Avoid sectors that are feeling the COVID-19 pinch like tourism and hospitality.</li>
<li>Get into companies that are benefitting from the pandemic like health and supermarkets.</li>
</ul>
<div id="AU_SA_5_Wealth_Over_50_v3" class="pitch-snippet">
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<p><em>Motley Fool contributor Alexandra Cain owns shares of BHP Group Ltd and Woolworths Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/what-does-it-mean-to-be-motley/">diverse range of insights</a> makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a <a href="https://www.fool.com.au/fool-com-au-disclosure-policy/">disclosure policy</a>. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2020/04/18/not-scared-by-bears-why-the-asx-share-market-could-be-poised-to-skyrocket/">Not scared by bears: Why the ASX share market could be poised to skyrocket</a> appeared first on <a href="https://staging.www.fool.com.au">The Motley Fool Australia</a>.</p>
<p><strong>More reading</strong></p><ul><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/testing-again/'>Testing again</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test-2/'>Aaron Test 2</a></li><li> <a href='https://staging.www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/aaron-test/'>Aaron Test</a></li></ul>]]></content:encoded>
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