Here's the good news about bear markets

The investment outlook now is better than 18 months ago, believe it or not. AMP's Dr Shane Oliver also names which assets will have the best chance for outperformance.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

As difficult as this year has been for ASX shares, other assets have suffered greatly too.

Whether you possess cryptocurrency, real estate, or even bonds, the chances are you've suffered losses in 2022.

Even for long-term investors, this is undoubtedly distressing.

But there is a bright side to the bear market, according to one expert.

A cute young girl lays on the floor with five teddy bears lying in a semicircle head to head with her as she clutches another teddy bear in one arm.

Image source: Getty Images

Potential returns have actually risen in 2022

Applying some conservative assumptions, the team at AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) projected what returns would be like for ASX shares and other assets over the next five to 10 years.

And the findings were surprising.

Using this model, the return potential dipped below 5% in late 2020. But this year, in troubled times, that has risen to 7% per annum.

"This is partly due to a 1% higher medium-term inflation assumption, but the rest is due to the rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on assets including shares over the last year," said AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver in a blog post.

"This is the silver lining to the cloud — or rather storm — that has hit investment markets."

This goes to show how a dip in ASX shares presents excellent buying opportunities.

"Bear markets are painful and are hard to predict, but they do push up the medium-term return potential of shares and so provide opportunities for investors."

It seems a minority of Australian investors are taking advantage of the current downturn.

According to research from comparison site Finder, 7% of Australians are investing "more adventurously" than they were six months ago.

According to Finder stock expert Kylie Purcell, for many younger investors, this could be their first experience of a bear market.

"Investing in shares during a market downturn can be daunting, especially for people with more aggressive portfolios or who have high-growth super funds," she said.

"[But] Warren Buffet said that it is wise for investors to be 'fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful'."

ASX shares are winners

Oliver surmised that ASX shares, due to their high dividend yields, stacked up well for the coming few years. Asian stocks were his pick for capital growth potential.

Return from bonds would remain poor and real estate would remain depressed due to rising interest rates.

He did have a caveat for his return projections.

"The main downside risk to our medium-term projections is that inflation trends even higher driving a further trend rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on other assets (including property & infrastructure), resulting in an ongoing drag on capital growth."

Oliver implored investors to "have reasonable return expectations" for the coming period.

"Interest rates and investment yields are still historically low so [it's] unreasonable to expect sustained double-digit returns."

Investors should concentrate on acquiring investments with a certain characteristic, he added.

"Focus on assets with decent sustainable income flow as they provide confidence regarding future returns."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Investing Strategies

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Dividend Investing

Buy Macquarie and this ASX 200 passive income share: analysts

These could be the shares to buy if you want a passive income boost.

Read more »

Miner looking at his notes.
ESG

'Not sure if that's the way we should go': Why BHP shares are making news today

BHP is trialling renewable diesel made from Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) at its Western Australian Yandi iron ore mine.

Read more »

ATM with Australian hundred dollar notes hanging out.
Dividend Investing

4 ASX 200 shares trading ex-dividend on Wednesday

These ASX 200 shares will be rewarding their shareholders with dividends very soon.

Read more »

Portrait of Discovery Fund portfolio managers Mark Devcich and Chris Bainbridge
Investing Strategies

Revealed: Fund's secret sauce to picking ASX shares for massive wins

Ask A Fund Manager: Discovery Fund's Chris Bainbridge and Mark Devcich also set out 4 reasons why ASX shares will…

Read more »

A woman wearing glasses and a black top smiles broadly as she stares at a money yarn full of coins representing the rising JB Hi-Fi share price and rising dividends over the past five years
Dividend Investing

Buy these ASX dividend shares with big yields today: experts

These ASX shares could give your passive income a major boost during the cost of living crisis.

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices
Dividend Investing

3 ASX 200 shares trading ex-dividend on Tuesday

Expect to see these 3 ASX 200 shares drop tomorrow

Read more »

A couple sits in their lounge room with a large piggy bank on the coffee table. They smile while the male partner feeds some money into the slot while the female partner looks on with an iPad style device in her hands as though they are budgeting.
Dividend Investing

Buy these ASX dividend shares right now for income: analysts

Here's why analysts say these could be top options for income investors this month...

Read more »

A woman is excited as she reads the latest rumour on her phone.
Growth Shares

Here's why experts rate these ASX 200 growth shares as buys

Healthcare, retail, and lithium... here's why analysts rate these growth shares highly right now.

Read more »