QBE share price riding on these 3 'macro tailwinds', analysts say

Analysts are constructive on QBE.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • QBE looks well-positioned to benefit from a number of macroeconomic tailwinds
  • Interest rates, higher premiums on crops and commodity insurance, and potential improved climate-risk metrics are all factors
  • In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%

Shares in QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are trading at $12.26 apiece, up 1.49% on Thursday.

After some fairly widely-dispersed pricing, QBE stock has managed to thrust itself off a low of $10.08 in March and race higher to its current levels.

Analysts are constructive on the company and reckon it's well-positioned to benefit from a slew of macro catalysts. Let's take a look.

TradingView Chart
A team of people giving the thumbs up sign representing APA and Wesfarmers doing a deal to study green hydrogen transport using an APA gas pipeline

Image source: Getty Images

QBE share price to benefit from macro tailwinds

Analysts at UBS have chimed in on the investment debate for QBE in a recent note to clients. They note the insurer is benefitting from a number of industry-specific and macroeconomic tailwinds, making it the preferred insurance share for UBS.

Writing to clients, UBS analyst Scott Russell said factors such as stronger crop pricing are feeding additional income to QBE via gross written premiums from crop insurance customers.

Not only that, but rising bond yields have the potential to send QBE shares higher, he says.

Meanwhile, analysts at JP Morgan have tied QBE's outlook to recent events in the bond markets and a strengthening phase in the insurance cycle.

"As a global commercial insurer, QBE is subject to the vagaries of the insurance cycle and volatile natural catastrophes," the broker wrote.

"Trends in the cycle are currently improving, and there could be further upside from premium rates, providing a tailwind for earnings growth, with investment yields a headwind."

UBS and JP Morgan each rate QBE as a buy. They value QBE at a price of $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Matt Ingram reckons market sentiment has improved for QBE based on its improved climate-risk outlook and its 'brilliant basics' program.

He says this could reflect "consensus fiscal 2023 profit that's more than double mean earnings for the last decade".

"The higher earnings reflect underwriting and efficiency improvements thanks to the firm's "brilliant basics" program and better risk selection in the U.S. and European businesses," he wrote earlier this month.

"The 1.3x price/book ratio represents a 25% discount to IAG, the tightest it has been since 2011, reflecting IAG's climate-related costs and QBE's optimism. It remains more expensive than Suncorp despite the latter's superior profitability," he added.

What's the consensus on QBE?

QBE has a consensus valuation of $14.41 per share, according to Bloomberg data. About 91% of analysts covering it rate it a buy right now.

In the past 12 months, the QBE share price has climbed 26%. It is also 9% higher this past month.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

a woman
Broker Notes

5 ASX 200 shares that inflation can't touch: expert

Regardless of whether you're a bull or a bear, cost pressures are a factor when buying stocks at the moment.

Read more »

Two miners standing together with a smile on their faces.
Resources Shares

These are the best ASX 200 mining shares to buy in March: Morgans

These mining shares are on Morgans' best ideas list in March.

Read more »

a woman
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Analysts believe that now could be the time to add these shares to your portfolio...

Read more »

A cute young girl wears a straw hat and has a backpack strapped on her back as she holds a globe in her hand with a cheeky smile on her face.
Travel Shares

Qantas shares have dumped 7% in 3 days. Should I buy?

Is the recent Qantas share price weakness a buying opportunity?

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices
Broker Notes

Arafura stock sell-off continues, broker tips 35% upside

Recent weakness could be a buying opportunity for investors according to one broker.

Read more »

a middle-aged woman holds up two fingers with a wide mouthed smile on her face and wide open eyes.
Share Fallers

'Top quality': Expert picks 2 ASX 200 shares to buy at a nice discount

These stocks are down but not out. One portfolio manager is convinced they'll make you richer in the long run.

Read more »

two dogs, a golden one and a black one, together carry a stick in their mouths as the run side by side with contented, happy looks on their faces.
Broker Notes

2 ASX 200 shares to rocket from same booming industry: expert

Most sectors will struggle when the economy slows down, but maybe not this one.

Read more »

A young woman sits on her lounge looking pleasantly surprised at what she's seeing on her laptop screen as she reads about the South32 share price
Technology Shares

These ASX tech shares are buys: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs speaks very highly about these tech shares.

Read more »