Why I think it's time to sell these 'safe' blue chips

I think it's time to sell AGL Energy Ltd (ASX:AGL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG).

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

a woman

One of the older pieces of investing advice is to invest in blue chips and hold them for the reliable dividends they pay.

Some people may have decided to avoid cyclical shares like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and BHP Billiton Limited (ASX: BHP) for more consistent industries like energy and telco utility operators.

But, going for 'safer' doesn't appear to have been the safest choice. Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) shareholders have seen an enormous deterioration of strength of the business.

The same could soon be said of Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL). The two energy businesses used to be a simple investment offering: regular customer cashflow every few months.

However, there's a list of reasons for uncertainty surrounding them these days.

Firstly, their customers are now competition. Every household that installs solar panels means less electricity for the energy giants to sell. Those households could be selling energy back into the system if they generate excess energy. This trend is only going to continue as the cost of solar panels reduces further.

The government wants to put a price cap on electricity prices. This would likely be a good thing for households, however it will almost certainly crimp profits.

That wasn't the only threat. The government has also threatened forced divestment on the energy sector. However, this seems unlikely with Labor, states and business all not liking that idea.

Foolish takeaway

If I'm going to invest in a large ASX business I want to see that it is good long-term growth potential as well as downside protection.

However, AGL and Origin don't seem like reliable investments to me at the moment. AGL's dividend yield of 6.3% is not enough to attract me to it.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Defensive Shares

A businessman waers armour and holds a shield and sword.
Defensive Shares

Why you need defensive ASX shares in your portfolio right now: WAM

2023 could be the year when the quality of businesses shines through.

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Defensive Shares

For $200 in weekly passive income, buy 10,300 shares of this ASX 200 stock

This ASX blue chip could unlock enormous passive income for investors.

Read more »

Woman relaxing and using her Apple device
Financial Shares

For $1,000 in monthly passive income, buy 1,770 shares of this ASX 200 stock

This ASX blue chip could unlock enormous passive income for investors.

Read more »

a man sits at a bar with a half full glass of beer and looks sadly into his mobile phone while propping his head on his hand with his elbow resting on the bar.
Broker Notes

Credit and drinks: Experts name 2 ASX shares to buy for a 2023 economic slowdown

Interest rate rises have now stepped up nine months in a row. The economy will suffer for a while.

Read more »

A young investor working on his ASX shares portfolio on his laptop
Defensive Shares

Here's why I'd buy this ASX 200 share with conviction if there's a recession

This ASX share could be stronger in a recession.

Read more »

Three boys dressed as knights wield swords as they defend their castle wall.
Defensive Shares

3 ASX shares to buy for a possible recession next year

Here are three names that could provide protection in a downturn.

Read more »

A woman wearing dark clothing and sporting a few tattoos and piercings holds a phone and a takeaway coffee cup as she strolls under the Sydney Harbour Bridge which looms in the background.
Defensive Shares

Buy now: Experts name 2 ASX 200 companies essential to Aussie life

When the economy is slowing down, you need to look for businesses that consumers just can't live without.

Read more »

A boy stands firm on a rocky cliff holding a rocket in each hand and looking up toward the sky, anticipating flying into space.
Opinions

Worried about a stock market crash? I'd buy these 5 rock-solid ASX shares to ride it out

Coast through a cold market with these hardened companies.

Read more »